6 Dos and 6 Don’ts for Your Portfolio Ahead of Trump's Proposed Tariffs

Investopedia
2024-12-04

Key takeaways

  • President-elect Trump has vowed to impose tariffs on U.S. trading partners.
  • Trump has threatened Canada and Mexico with 25% levies and China with a 10% toll.
  • To take advantage of the tariffs—or dodge the downside of some—you may want to buy certain exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and sell others, something you can do in any of the best brokerage accounts or individual retirement accounts (IRAs).

Ahead of his second term in office, President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to slap a 25% tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on all products from China. Meant to incentivize the target nations to block the entry of illegal drugs such as fentanyl and of unauthorized migrants to the U.S., such tariffs could impact industries ranging from automakers to zucchini growers.

So you may be wondering how you can profit from the tariffs or any retaliatory levies by foreign countries—and whether there are any investments or portfolio steps you should avoid. The answer: There are plenty.

We discussed six of the savviest steps with money managers and financial advisors. They all easily lend themselves to buys and sells that you can do on your own in any of the best brokerage accounts or individual retirement accounts (IRAs) that you happen to use.

How You Can Position Your Investments Ahead of the Proposed Tariffs

Paul Schatz, president of Heritage Capital and treasurer of the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM), thinks any Trump tariffs—if they occur—are likely to undergo modifications stemming from congressional and diplomatic give-and-take.

“[But] if the tariff plan is enacted and nothing else happens, then investors should focus [their buys and holds] on purely domestic companies with domestic supply chains,” Schatz said. “In the tech space, that would be groups like software, communication services, and the internet. Financials, banks, insurance, and capital markets are all immune from tariffs. Health care, biotech, and energy would also benefit.”

Investment Dos

If you’re looking to buy, Schatz recommended considering ETFs like these six below as long-term investments. You can see each ETF’s expense ratio and top three holdings per the fund’s website, plus total returns through Nov. 29, per Morningstar.com:

SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF (XSW)

  • Expense ratio: 0.35%
  • Top holdings: AppLovin Corp., Class A (APP); Microstrategy Inc., Class A (MSTR); Hut 8 Corp. (HUT)
  • Year-to-date (YTD) total return: 29.12%, as of Nov. 29.

The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC)

  • Expense ratio: 0.90%
  • Top holdings: Meta Platforms Inc. (META), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)
  • YTD total return: 36.56%, as of Nov. 29.

First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (FDN)

  • Expense ratio: 0.51%
  • Top holdings: Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN); Meta Platforms, Inc.; Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
  • YTD total return: 29.72%, as of Nov. 29.

The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF)

  • Expense ratio: 0.90%
  • Top holdings: Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BERK.B), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Visa Inc., Class A (V)
  • YTD total return: 38.09%, as of Nov. 29.

SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)

  • Expense ratio: 0.35%
  • Top holdings: M & T Bank Corp. (MTB); Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN); Regions Financial Corp. (RF)
  • YTD total return: 32.17%, as of Nov. 29.

SPDR S&P Capital Markets ETF (KCE)

  • Expense ratio: 0.35%
  • Top holdings: Coinbase Global Inc., Class A (COIN); Robinhood Markets Inc., Class A (HOOD); LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA)
  • YTD total return: 47.27%, as of Nov. 29.

Investment Don’ts

As for investment “don’ts,” financial planner and wealth manager Said Israilov at Israilov Financial told us that he advises investors to avoid the Global X MSCI China Consumer Discretionary ETF (CHIQ). That ETF holds Chinese consumer discretionary goods companies, which he said stand to be hurt by tariffs.

“This ETF holds dozens of consumer discretionary companies including major ecommerce retailers like Alibaba (ADR: BABA), JD.com (JD), and Pinduoduo (ADR: PDD) as well as large automakers like BYD (ADR: BYDDY), and Geely (GELYF),” Israilov said.

SonicShares Global Shipping ETF (BOAT) is another one of Israilov’s investment don’ts. That’s because tariffs will likely reduce the amount of goods transported by the global shipping industry.

Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ), many of whose Chinese high-technology manufacturing companies make the sort of technology products—smartphone lenses, semiconductor chips, processor chips, and equipment for data centers—is another ETF to avoid, according to Israilov. He told us that the companies in this ETF are likely a target of tariffs.

The SonicShares Global Shipping ETF (BOAT)

  • Expense ratio: 0.69%
  • Top holdings: Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd. (ADR: MSLOY); Matson Inc. (MATX); AP Moller-Maersk A/S (ADR: AMKBY)
  • YTD total return: 7.05%, according to Morningstar, as of Nov. 29.

The Global X MSCI China Consumer Discretionary ETF (CHIQ)

  • Expense ratio: 0.65%
  • Top holdings: Meituan, Class B (3690 HK); Alibaba Group Holding LTD. (9988 HK); PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)
  • YTD total return: 11.37%, as of Nov. 29.

The Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ)

  • Expense ratio: 0.65%
  • Top holdings: Sunny Optical Technology Group Co., Ltd. (SNPTF); SenseTime Group Inc. (ADR: SNTMF); Kingdee International Software Group Co Ltd. (ADR: KGDEF)
  • YTD total return: 12.91%, as of Nov. 29.

Chartered financial analyst Michael Ashley Schulman, partner and chief investment officer of Running Point Capital Advisors, did not tell us his outright recommendations, but he said certain securities “could be affected” by tariffs, and investors should decide for themselves how to proceed. He pointed out the following ETFs linked to countries facing tariffs (YTD total returns are per Morningstar, as of Nov. 29:

iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW)

  • Expense ratio: 0.50%
  • Top holdings: GPO Finance Banorte (GFNORTEO.MX); Fomento Economico Mexicano (FEMSAUBD); Grupo Mexico, Class B (GMEXICOB)
  • YTD total return: -25.29%, as of Nov. 29.

iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

  • Expense ratio: 0.50%
  • Top holdings: Meituan, Class B (3690 HK); Alibaba Group Holding LTD. (9988 HK); PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)
  • YTD total return: 19.03%, as of Nov. 29.

SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC)

  • Expense ratio: 0.59%
  • Top holdings: Tencent Holdings Ltd. (ADR: TCEHY); Alibaba Group Holding LTD. (9988 HK); Meituan, Class B (3690 HK)
  • YTD total return: 14.24%, as of Nov. 29.

Ways to Use Brokers and IRAs to Profit from Tariff-Friendly ETFs

In which investment accounts should you hold tariff-safe ETFs? From which accounts should you eliminate tariff-vulnerable ETFs, or at least trim your exposure? You can take those steps in your taxable brokerage accounts as well as your traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs, and 401(k) accounts. Those retirement accounts shelter your investments from yearly taxes. Traditional IRAs and 401(k)s also offer up-front tax deductions for your contributions. Roth IRAs offer tax-free withdrawals for properly timed withdrawals of investment earnings and of your contributions at all times. The combined annual contribution limit for Roth and traditional IRAs for the 2024 tax year is $7,000, or $8,000 if you're age 50 or older.

Compare the Top Brokers for Buying ETFs

Company Account Minimum ETF Screeners ETF Trading Fee
Fidelity $0 Yes $0
Charles Schwab $0 Yes $0
E*Trade $0 Yes $0
Vanguard $0 Vanguard ETFs Only $0
Interactive Brokers $0 Yes $0

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