A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Ameren (AEE). Shares have added about 6.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Ameren due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Ameren Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y

Ameren Corporation reported third-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings of $1.87 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.91 by 2.1%.

The company posted GAAP earnings of $1.70 per share compared with $1.87 per share in the third quarter of 2023.

AEE’s Total Revenues

Total revenues came in at $2.17 billion in the reported quarter, up 5.5% year over year. However, revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.21 billion by 1.6%.

Highlights of the Release

Ameren’s total electricity sales volumes decreased 2.8% to 18,565 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) compared with 19,098 million kWh in the year-ago period. Gas volumes rose 7.4% to 29 million dekatherms from the prior-year period’s level.

Total operating expenses were $1.59 billion, up 9.8% year over year.

The company’s interest expenses in the third quarter totaled $173 million compared with the prior-year quarter’s $152 million.

AEE’s Segmental Results

The Ameren Missouri segment reported adjusted earnings of $415 million. This unit reported GAAP earnings of $381 million.

The Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution segment reported earnings of $56 million in the third quarter compared with $66 million a year ago. The decline was due to a lower allowed return on equity for 2024 under the new multi-year rate plan.

The Ameren Illinois Natural Gas segment reported a loss of $10 million in the third quarter compared with a loss of $5 million a year ago. The year-over-year decline can be attributed to the adverse impacts of rate design from new delivery service rates effective Nov. 28, 2023.

The Ameren Transmission segment reported adjusted earnings of $90 million. It reported GAAP earnings of $100 million compared with $86 million in the prior-year period. The improvement was driven by increased earnings from infrastructure investments.

AEE’s Financial Condition

Ameren reported cash and cash equivalents of $17 million as of Sept. 30, 2024 compared with $25 million at the end of 2023.

As of Sept. 30, 2024, the long-term debt totaled $16.42 billion compared with $15.12 billion as of Dec. 31, 2023.

As of Sept. 30, 2024, the cash flow from operating activities amounted to $1.95 billion compared with $2.03 billion a year ago.

AEE’s Guidance

Ameren lowered its 2024 GAAP earnings guidance. It now expects to generate GAAP earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $4.34-$4.48 compared with the previous range of $4.52-$4.72.

The company expects its 2024 adjusted earnings in the range of $4.55-$4.69. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 earnings is pegged at $4.61 per share, which lies just below the midpoint of the company’s guided range.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 10.77% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Ameren has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Ameren has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Ameren is part of the Zacks Utility - Electric Power industry. Over the past month, Alliant Energy (LNT), a stock from the same industry, has gained 9.4%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2024 more than a month ago.

Alliant Energy reported revenues of $1.08 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +0.4%. EPS of $1.15 for the same period compares with $1.05 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Alliant Energy is expected to post earnings of $0.68 per share, indicating a change of +41.7% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -3.6% over the last 30 days.

Alliant Energy has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of D.

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