The board of Lincoln National Corporation (NYSE:LNC) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.45 per share on the 3rd of February. This means the annual payment is 5.2% of the current stock price, which is above the average for the industry.

Check out our latest analysis for Lincoln National

Lincoln National's Payment Could Potentially Have Solid Earnings Coverage

Impressive dividend yields are good, but this doesn't matter much if the payments can't be sustained. Prior to this announcement, the dividend made up 117% of earnings, and the company was generating negative free cash flows. Paying out such a large dividend compared to earnings while also not generating free cash flows is a major warning sign for the sustainability of the dividend as these levels are certainly a bit high.

Analysts expect a massive rise in earnings per share in the next year. If the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate the payout ratio will be 22%, which would make us comfortable with the dividend's sustainability, despite the levels currently being elevated.

Lincoln National Has A Solid Track Record

The company has been paying a dividend for a long time, and it has been quite stable which gives us confidence in the future dividend potential. Since 2014, the dividend has gone from $0.64 total annually to $1.80. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11% a year over that time. We can see that payments have shown some very nice upward momentum without faltering, which provides some reassurance that future payments will also be reliable.

The Dividend Has Limited Growth Potential

Investors who have held shares in the company for the past few years will be happy with the dividend income they have received. Let's not jump to conclusions as things might not be as good as they appear on the surface. Over the past five years, it looks as though Lincoln National's EPS has declined at around 18% a year. A sharp decline in earnings per share is not great from from a dividend perspective. Even conservative payout ratios can come under pressure if earnings fall far enough. On the bright side, earnings are predicted to gain some ground over the next year, but until this turns into a pattern we wouldn't be feeling too comfortable.

The Dividend Could Prove To Be Unreliable

Overall, it's nice to see a consistent dividend payment, but we think that longer term, the current level of payment might be unsustainable. In the past the payments have been stable, but we think the company is paying out too much for this to continue for the long term. This company is not in the top tier of income providing stocks.

Companies possessing a stable dividend policy will likely enjoy greater investor interest than those suffering from a more inconsistent approach. At the same time, there are other factors our readers should be conscious of before pouring capital into a stock. Just as an example, we've come across 3 warning signs for Lincoln National you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.