It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Ultragenyx (RARE). Shares have lost about 6.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Ultragenyx due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Ultragenyx Q3 Loss Narrower Than Expected, Revenues Beat Estimates

Ultragenyxincurred a third-quarter 2024 loss of $1.40 per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.45. The company had reported a loss of $2.23 per share in the year-ago quarter.       

Ultragenyx’s total revenues amounted to $139.5 million in the reported quarter, up 42% year over year. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $134 million on the back of higher product revenues.

RARE’s Q3 Results in Detail

Crysvita’s total revenues were $97.8 million, up 31% year over year, driven by increased demand for approved indications. Crysvita’s net product revenues in the third quarter of 2024 were primarily aided by the $56 million generated from sales of the drug in the Latin America region and Turkey, representing 85% growth year over year.

Mepsevii product revenues were $9.6 million in the third quarter, up 71% from the year-ago quarter. Dojolvi product revenues were $21.4 million, up 29%, driven by strong new patient demand. Evkeeza recorded sales of $10.7 million in the reported quarter.

Operating expenses of $271.5 million in the quarter grew 12% year over year due to increased investments in multiple late-stage pipeline programs and costs associated with commercial product launches. Operating expenses included research and development expenses of $170.1 million (up 8%), selling, general and administrative expenses of $80.4 million (up 7%) and cost of sales of $21 (up 91%).

Cash, cash equivalents and marketable debt securities amounted to $825 million as of Sept. 30, 2024, compared with $874 million as of June 30, 2024.

RARE Maintains 2024 Guidance

Ultragenyx reiterated its previous guidance for 2024. For the full year, total revenues are expected in the range of $530-$550 million.

Crysvita revenues are expected toward the upper end of the range of $375-$400 million (). Dojolvi's revenues are projected between $75 million and $80 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -5.59% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Ultragenyx has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Ultragenyx has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Ultragenyx belongs to the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. Another stock from the same industry, Alkermes (ALKS), has gained 6% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2024.

Alkermes reported revenues of $378.14 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -0.7%. EPS of $0.73 for the same period compares with $0.64 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Alkermes is expected to post earnings of $0.82 per share, indicating a change of +70.8% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +6.6% over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Alkermes. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of B.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Alkermes plc (ALKS) : Free Stock Analysis Report

To read this article on Zacks.com click here.

Zacks Investment Research