As you might know, Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ:SWBI) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$130m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 41%, coming in at just US$0.09 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Smith & Wesson Brands

Following last week's earnings report, Smith & Wesson Brands' three analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$512.0m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to crater 57% to US$0.35 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$560.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.92 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers.

The consensus price target fell 18% to US$15.33, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Smith & Wesson Brands, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$20.00 and the most bearish at US$13.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2025 compared to the historical decline of 8.0% per annum over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 3.4% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Smith & Wesson Brands is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Smith & Wesson Brands. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Smith & Wesson Brands' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Smith & Wesson Brands. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Smith & Wesson Brands analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Smith & Wesson Brands is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is potentially serious...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.