Monday, December 9, 2024

Markets started out the trading week flat-to-lower following three up-weeks on the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The small-cap Russell 2000 tried to stoke a fire coming out of the gate, but wound up cooling -0.61% on the day, comparable to the S&P’s -0.61% and the Nasdaq’s -0.62%. The Dow shed -240 points for the session, -0.54%.

Trading behavior, despite notching new all-time closing highs virtually all of last week, has actually gone fairly flat compared to the preceding few months. Markets have come up between +14.5% (Dow) and +20.60% (Nasdaq) from early-August lows. The Nasdaq and S&P are up since Thanksgiving, but marginally; the Dow and Russell have dwindled slightly.

Oracle Misses by a Penny, Shares Sell Off -9%

Software giant Oracle ORCL came up a penny short of estimates in its fiscal Q2 this afternoon, posting earnings of $1.47 per share. This is still higher than the $1.34 per share reported in the year-ago quarter. Revenues of $14.1 billion were a smidge below the Zacks consensus $14.1 billion, but still +9% year over year.

Demand reached +52%, stronger than the +50% expected. Margins for the quarter came in at +43%. Looking forward, Oracle sees plenty of opportunity in migrating data into AI functionality. CEO Larry Ellison called the scale of the AI business “unimaginable.” That said, it’s currently the second bottom-line miss in the past three quarters. Also, at +80% year to date, Oracle shares had been trading at pretty “perfect” levels.

Check out the updated Zacks Earnings Calendar here.

C3.ai, Toll Brother Up Big After Earnings Reports

C3.ai AI, the software company with the forethought to give themselves the “AI” ticker, outperformed expectations on both top and bottom lines after today’s close. A narrower-than-expected loss of -$0.06 per share (-$0.16 was the consensus) matched a higher-than-anticipated $94.3 million in sales ($91.0 million had been expected), and shares are trading up +16% in the after hours. This adds to the +45% gains the company has already made in 2024.

Luxury retailer Toll Brothers TOL posted another impressive beat after Monday’s close, with earnings of $4.63 per share well ahead of the $4.30 in the Zacks consensus, on $3.26 billion in revenues which decisively took out the $317 billion expected. It was reportedly a record year for the high-end homebuilder, with deliveries +25% year over year on strong demand. Shares are dipping -2.5% in late trading, but are still up more than +50% year to date.

What to Expect in the Stock Market for Tuesday

We have an extra day to wait before Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers hit the tape; Tuesday we’ll have to content ourselves with Q3 U.S. Productivity and Unit Labor Costs. Productivity is expected to remain constant at +2.2% from Q2’s print, with labor costs expected to shrink half a point to +1.4% from +1.9% the previous quarter.

Though not given as much oxygen (or pixels as monthly CPI data, Productivity/Labor Costs give a decent snapshot of inflation from a different angle. And if we get steady productivity with a nice drop in costs, this will present as an anti-inflationary print.

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