While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the St Barbara Limited (ASX:SBM) share price has gained 22% in the last three months. But spare a thought for the long term holders, who have held the stock as it bled value over the last five years. Like a ship taking on water, the share price has sunk 88% in that time. While the recent increase might be a green shoot, we're certainly hesitant to rejoice. The real question is whether the business can leave its past behind and improve itself over the years ahead. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
See our latest analysis for St Barbara
St Barbara wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
Over half a decade St Barbara reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 25% for each year. That puts it in an unattractive cohort, to put it mildly. So it's not that strange that the share price dropped 13% per year in that period. We don't think this is a particularly promising picture. Ironically, that behavior could create an opportunity for the contrarian investor - but only if there are good reasons to predict a brighter future.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
Take a more thorough look at St Barbara's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between St Barbara's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Dividends have been really beneficial for St Barbara shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 70%, over the last 5 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.
It's good to see that St Barbara has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 59% in the last twelve months. That certainly beats the loss of about 11% per year over the last half decade. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that St Barbara is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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