Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 22% over the past week following Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SPWH) latest third-quarter results. The results don't look great, especially considering that the analysts had been forecasting a profit and Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings delivered a statutory loss of US$0.01 per share. Revenues of US$324m did beat expectations by 7.9% though. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, is for revenues of US$1.19b in 2026. This implies a discernible 2.9% reduction in Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings' revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 48% to US$0.46. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$1.16b and US$0.42 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a modest increase to per-share loss expectations.

It will come as a surprise to learn that the consensus price target rose 14% to US$3.30, with the analysts clearly more interested in growing revenue, even as losses intensify. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings analyst has a price target of US$4.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$3.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.3% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 3.4% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.7% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.