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SIX KEY CATALYSTS FOR GLP-1s IN 2025 - BARCLAYS

GLP-1 drugs are a major 2024 theme certain to rumble on into 2025, so investors would do well to mark down some key dates that could impact the space.

Barclays has highlighted six separate events, sharing their GLP 1 "catalyst calendar" in a recent note.

The first is the awaited results of Novo Nordisk’s REDEFINE-1 study: the first pivotal one on a next-generation obesity drug CagriSema due December 2024.

"Success in this study is a significant derisking event for Novo Nordisk, as it gives the company visibility beyond the US patent cliff of semaglutide (2032) and a competitive advantage over Zepbound (tirzepatide), which generates about 20% weight loss".

They are also watching for an update on Novo Nordisk's Amycretin in the first quarter of 2025, and Eli Lilly's Orforglipron in the second quarter.

"A new, more powerful generation of weight-loss drugs could significantly boost growth," Barclays writes.

"2025 could be an inflection point in the GLP-1 narrative."

In policy, they highlight weekend news that all regulatory closing conditions related to Novo Holdings' $16.5 billion acquisition of U.S. contract drug maker Catalent CTLT.N had been fulfilled.

"We view this as an overwhelmingly positive event, given uncertainty in the current US anti-trust regulatory environment," as well as the positive impact on GLP-1 supply.

Novo may have come off highs recently following missing consensus third quarter 2024 forecasts, but Barclays thinks supply continuing to come online over 2025 should continue to drive significant prescription and revenue growth.

Novo share are down about 25% since their all-time high in late June. The stock remains the STOXX 600's biggest weight by market cap.

They also flag the upcoming FDA decision on drug compounding, set for December 19, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr's confirmation hearings set for the first quarter of 2025 as important policy catalysts.

(Lucy Raitano)

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