Implied volatility is marginally weaker amid a lack of FX realised volatility, as spot markets consolidate within recent and familiar ranges. However, declines will prove limited before the U.S, Japanese, and UK policy announcements with their potential to increase realised volatility.

One-week and 1-month expiry implied volatility in the major currency pairs are similar to where they closed last week, but are likely to lose further ground into the X-mas holidays if those central bank announcements fail to excite.

Huge strike expiries around 1.0500 are helping to contain EUR/USD again this week, with 8+ billion euros of 1.0500 strikes due to expire on Friday and plenty more above, and below.

There are an array of NZD, CAD and JPY strike expiries this week, with AUD/USD featuring large 0.6350 strikes on most days and billions of euros of EUR/GBP strikes due to expire on Friday.

Option trade flows are mixed and relatively light as traders trim positions at the end of the year, but EUR/USD is said to be long of downside strikes with knock-out triggers between 1.0300-1.0000, which are looking to benefit from any renewed EUR/USD losses through early 2025.

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(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

((Richard.Pace@Thomsonreuters.com))