United States Steel Corporation X expects fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted loss of between 29 cents and 25 cents per share. The quarterly adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) are predicted to be around $150 million.

The fourth quarter marked a key milestone in the company’s Best for All future, as the team executed more than $4 billion in growth capital investments. The first coil was achieved at Big River 2 on Oct. 31, 2024, and customer shipments started in December. Aligned with its commercial strategy, the company expects to reinforce its resilient earnings with increased free cash flow, X noted.

The $150 million adjusted EBITDA projection is lower than the company's previous fourth-quarter outlook of $225-$275 million. Steel prices remained under pressure, and BR2 ramp-related costs weighed on the quarter as the Big River team worked to increase prime ton production at U.S. Steel's new mill. Despite the adverse price environment across all segments, the North American Flat-Rolled segment continues to generate solid EBITDA, owing to its strong commercial strategy and diverse product mix. In Europe, demand and pricing remain weak.

The Flat-Rolled segment's adjusted EBITDA is forecast to be lower than in the third quarter, owing to reduced selling prices and volumes, as well as additional outage and maintenance activity. The Mini Mill segment's adjusted EBITDA is projected to be lower than in the prior quarter due to reduced volumes. For the fourth quarter, X anticipates about $30 million in related start-up and one-time construction expenditures, as well as $20 million in ramp-related impact from BR 2. 

The European segment's adjusted EBITDA is forecast to be lower than in the third quarter, owing to the negative impact of low demand, which results in lower volumes, average selling prices and volume inefficiencies. The Tubular segment's adjusted EBITDA is forecast to be higher than the third quarter, owing to increased volume and lower costs due to the lack of outage activity.

The company’s shares have decreased 34.1% in the past year against the industry’s 31% decline.

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X’s Rank & Key Picks

X currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Better-ranked stocks in the basic materials space include Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS, New Gold Inc. NGD and CF Industries Inc. CF. 

Carpenter Technology currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). CRS beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 14.1%. The company's shares have soared 138.9% in the past year. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

New Gold, a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock, beat the consensus estimate in three of the trailing four quarters. In this time frame, it has delivered an earnings surprise of roughly 37.5%, on average. NGD’s shares have gained 65.8% over the past year. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s current-year earnings is pegged at $6.35. CF, a Zacks Rank #1 stock, beat the consensus estimate in two of the last four quarters while missed twice, with the average earnings surprise being 10.3%. CF has rallied around 7.8% in the past year.

 

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