BlackBerry Growth Hinge On IoT, Secure Communications Despite Valuation Concerns: Analyst

Benzinga
2024-12-21

BlackBerry Ltd (NYSE:BB) stock surged upwards on Friday. The company reported third-quarter results after the market closed on Thursday.

BlackBerry reported quarterly revenue of $143.00 million, missing the analyst consensus estimate of $161.49 million. The adjusted EPS was $0.02, beating analyst estimates.

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BlackBerry expects fourth-quarter revenue of $126.00 million – $135.00 million, versus estimates of $150.08 million. It expects adjusted EPS of $(0.01) – $0.01. Analysts rerated the stock after the quarterly print.

RBC Capital analyst Paul Treiber reiterated BlackBerry with a Sector Perform and a $3.25 price target.

BlackBerry’s third quarter marks its first quarter of financials without Cylance. The quarter exceeded Treiber’s estimates, though fourth-quarter guidance was short of his expectations.

Excluding Cylance (discontinued operations), third-quarter revenue was $143 million (-7% year-on-year), above Treiber’s estimated $128 million. All three revenue lines exceeded the analyst’s expectations: IoT ($62 million versus RBC and consensus at $58 million and $59 million), Secure Communications ($74 million versus RBC at $66 million), and Licensing ($7 million versus RBC and consensus at $4 million). Due to higher revenue, adjusted EBITDA was $35 million, above RBC at $13 million.

The fourth-quarter revenue guidance short of RBC. It calls for $126 million – $135 million in revenue, below RBC’s estimate of $138 million. The shortfall stems from Secure Communications ($62 million – $66 million versus RBC at $71 million). IoT guidance for $60 million – $65 million bracketed RBC estimate ($64 million). The mid-point of adjusted EBITDA guidance for $10 million – $20 million missed the RBC estimate of $19 million.

BlackBerry is now profitable and operating cash flow positive. However, Treiber noted that the valuation will likely remain discounted below that of peers pending improved IoT growth (fourth-quarter guidance calls for IoT revenue to be down 5% year-on-year at the mid-point).

BlackBerry is trading at a discounted valuation of 3.0 times NTM Enterprise Value/Sales.

Treiber noted that BlackBerry’s valuation will likely remain discounted, pending strengthening IoT growth and realizing improved profitability. The price target includes the $120 million cash proceeds from the sale of Cylance and values Secure Communications at 6.0 times calendar 2025 Enterprise Value/EBITDA (unchanged) and the IoT business at 6.1 times calendar 2025 Enterprise Value/ Sales (unchanged).

Price Action: BB stock is up 23.5% at $3.679 at last check Friday.

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  • Verizon Teams Up With Nvidia To Power AI Apps Over Private 5G Networks

Image via Shutterstock.

Latest Ratings for BB

Date Firm Action From To
Aug 2021 Canaccord Genuity Upgrades Sell Hold
Jun 2021 TD Securities Downgrades Hold Reduce
Jun 2021 CIBC Downgrades Neutral Underperform

View More Analyst Ratings for BB

View the Latest Analyst Ratings

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