Get ready for an M&A boom next year.

Deals are expected to rise in 2025 under a Trump White House, with the doors opening after a run of years when elevated interest rates and a tough regulatory regime weighed on deal-making. This year alone saw several high-profile deals scrapped, from JetBlue Airways’ (JBLU) attempt to buy out budget carrier rival Spirit Airlines (SAVEQ) to Kroger’s (KR) attempted takeover of grocery rival Albertsons (ACI).

That will change, pretty much everyone expects. Funding is expected to get cheaper, with the Federal Reserve extending its interest-rate-cutting cycle, lowering borrowing costs, even as the central bank struggles with the last mile of its inflation fight. The economy, meanwhile, appears on solid footing, with stock markets strong, easing the path for stock-for-stock deals.

And, crucially, Donald Trump, a fan of looser regulation, was again elected president. The Biden administration took a comparatively muscular approach to antitrust vetting, blocking more mergers because of competitive concerns than did previous administrations, according to bankers and analysts, who said even deals that might have gone unchallenged in past years faced challenges during the current administration.

New FTC, Justice Department Appointments Likely More Open to M&A

The president-elect already has taken steps relevant to M&A with his appointments. Republican lawyer Andrew Ferguson was appointed as his nominee for the next chairman of the Federal Trade Commission, succeeding Lina Khan, who was famously tough on deals. And Gail Slater has been named to head the Justice Department's antitrust arm, replacing Jonathan Kanter. The FTC and the Justice Department share authority over antitrust enforcement.

Both Ferguson and Slater are likely to be more open to deal-making and "likely come with a more traditional, lighter touch antitrust framework," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote earlier this month. “This should drive up animal spirits and improve corporate clarity in an M&A environment where market conditions are already supportive for activity."

Under the Biden administration, the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote, regulatory approval of deals “was less predictable” and so many CEOs stayed on the sidelines, wary of the risk of legal challenges or long, drawn-out deal processes.

Citing comments from an industry conference attended by senior Wall Street bankers from Goldman Sachs to Lazard, the Morgan Stanley report said that “companies are dusting off mergers that they had not been thinking about in some time" and confidence to do deals is returning.

A Stagnant Three Years for M&A

Bankers will welcome any deal pickup. The past three years have been cool for deal-making, with 2024’s figures just slightly up from last year.

There was more than $1.4 trillion in announced deals in 2024, according to data provider Dealogic, above 2023’s $1.32 trillion but below 2022’s $1.42 trillion. (The figures exclude debt.) Deal volumes are also off the $2.62 trillion seen in 2021, when booming markets, broad stimulus measures, and cheap lending amid low interest rates sparked a pandemic-induced frenzy.  

Here are the five biggest announced M&A deals for U.S. targets in 2024, according to Dealogic, with just two out of five completed so far.

1. Vernova Spun Out of General Electric

General Electric’s three-way split and spinoff of its power and wind business—now called GE Vernova (GEV)—was 2024's biggest M&A transaction, valued at $38.09 billion.

2. Capital One's Approach for Discover

$Capital One Financial Corp(COF-N)$.’s (COF) all-stock bid for Discover Financial Services (DFS) in February, valued at $35.32 billion, would create a payments giant serving more than 100 million customers but has yet to get the regulatory green light. 

3. Synopsys Bids for Ansys

Chip design software company Synopsys' (SNPS) $33.60 billion offer for simulation software firm Ansys (ANSS), announced in January, still hasn't been completed.

4. Mars Seeks Kellanova Takeover 

Candy giant Mars’ $29.91 billion offer for Pop-Tarts and Pringles maker Kellanova (K), announced in August, is still awaiting U.S. regulators' go-ahead.

5. Diamondback Buys Endeavor Energy

Diamondback Energy (FANG) announced plans in February for a $28.11 billion takeover of Endeavor Energy Resources—the latest in a string of big energy-sector deals. The deal has since closed.