Earlier this month I warned you that SpaceX's growing ability to offer direct-to-cell (DTC) communications, connecting calls between ordinary off-the-shelf cellphones through the use of Starlink satellites with no cell towers required, posed a clear and present danger to the business model of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS -4.10%) -- which invented the concept.
Less than two weeks later, it's become clear that the danger is even bigger than I at first realized.
Investors are realizing this now, too, in the wake of SpaceX's latest Starlink launch -- and AST SpaceMobile stock is already down 8.3% through 10:45 a.m. ET.
When I wrote earlier this month, SpaceX had a reported 26 DTC-enabled Starlink satellites in orbit. Out of a total 6,900-odd Starlinks, that's not a lot, but it was still 5 times more DTC satellites than AST SpaceMobile has in orbit.
As it turns out, SpaceX has actually launched a total of 26 rockets carrying DTC Starlinks -- not just 26 satellites aboard rockets. "Starlink satellites ... featuring DTC capabilities" numbered 285 in November, according to SatNews.com. And SpaceflightNow reported this morning that the final SpaceX launch of this year could take off tonight carrying 13 more DTC Starlinks to orbit. Once that happens, SpaceX should have roughly 300 DTC satellites in orbit -- versus AST SpaceMobile's still only five -- and have completed its first orbital shell of DTC Starlinks, permitting the company to begin beta service before AST can.
Both AST SpaceMobile and SpaceX have announced plans to begin direct-to-cell service via satellite in 2025. But whereas AST's five satellites might be enough to permit beta service within the United States, SpaceX's completion of an entire orbital shell means it already has the ability to do at least DTC emergency text messaging worldwide.
To catch up to SpaceX, AST will need to raise a lot of money and launch a lot more satellites in 2025. SpaceX already has all the money it needs, and is continually launching satellites.
Advantage: SpaceX.
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