A Look At The Fair Value Of Valuetronics Holdings Limited (SGX:BN2)

Simply Wall St.

01-01

Key Insights Valuetronics Holdings' estimated fair value is S$0.70 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price of S$0.62 suggests Valuetronics Holdings is potentially trading ...

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Current share price of S$0.62 suggests Valuetronics Holdings is potentially trading close to its fair value. Industry average discount to fair value of 7.9% suggests Valuetronics Holdings' peers are currently trading at a lower discount. Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Valuetronics Holdings Limited  by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow  model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in t","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"yahoo.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"FCF":"第一联邦金融","BK6062":"电子制造服务","BK4211":"区域性银行","TV":"墨西哥电视","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","BN2.SI":"鸿通电子","BK6515":"技术设备股"},"translate_title":"Valuetronics Holdings Limited（新交所代码：BN2）的公允价值一览","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"FCF":1,"TV":1,"BN2.SI":0.9},"content_text":"Key Insights\n\n Valuetronics Holdings' estimated fair value is S$0.70 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity \n Current share price of S$0.62 suggests Valuetronics Holdings is potentially trading close to its fair value \n Industry average discount to fair value of 7.9% suggests Valuetronics Holdings' peers are currently trading at a lower discount \n\n Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Valuetronics Holdings Limited (SGX:BN2) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex. \n We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. \n See our latest analysis for Valuetronics Holdings \n What's The Estimated Valuation? \n We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. \n Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars: \n 10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate \n\n\n\n\n2025\n2026\n2027\n2028\n2029\n2030\n2031\n2032\n2033\n2034\n\n\n Levered FCF (HK$, Millions) \nHK$100.1m\nHK$96.3m\nHK$94.4m\nHK$93.7m\nHK$93.9m\nHK$94.6m\nHK$95.7m\nHK$97.2m\nHK$98.9m\nHK$100.7m\n\n\nGrowth Rate Estimate Source\nEst @ -6.34%\nEst @ -3.77%\nEst @ -1.98%\nEst @ -0.72%\nEst @ 0.16%\nEst @ 0.77%\nEst @ 1.20%\nEst @ 1.51%\nEst @ 1.72%\nEst @ 1.87%\n\n\n Present Value (HK$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.4% \nHK$93.2\nHK$83.5\nHK$76.2\nHK$70.4\nHK$65.6\nHK$61.6\nHK$58.0\nHK$54.8\nHK$51.9\nHK$49.2\n\n\n\n(\"Est\" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = HK$664m\n The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.4%. \nTerminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = HK$101m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (7.4%– 2.2%) = HK$2.0b\nPresent Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= HK$2.0b÷ ( 1 + 7.4%)10= HK$965m\n The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is HK$1.6b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of S$0.6, the company appears about fair value at a 11% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind. \n\n\n\n  SGX:BN2 Discounted Cash Flow January 1st 2025\n \n\n The Assumptions \n We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Valuetronics Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.075. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. \nSWOT Analysis for Valuetronics Holdings\n\n\nStrength\n\nEarnings growth over the past year exceeded its 5-year average.\n\n\nCurrently debt free.\n\n\nDividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.\n\n\nDividend information for BN2.\n\n\n\nWeakness\n\nEarnings growth over the past year underperformed the Electronic industry.\n\n\n\nOpportunity\n\nAnnual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Singaporean market.\n\n\n Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.\n\n\n\nThreat\n\nDividends are not covered by cash flow.\n\n\nSee BN2's dividend history.\n\n\n\n Moving On: \n Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Valuetronics Holdings, there are three additional items you should further examine: \n\n Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Valuetronics Holdings (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here. \nFuture Earnings: How does BN2's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.\n Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! \n\n PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Singaporean stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.\nHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1}}}