Tesla Faces Challenges as Chinese EV Makers Surge Ahead

GuruFocus
01-03

Elon Musk's support for President-elect Donald Trump initially boosted Tesla (TSLA, Financial) to record highs by mid-December, with hopes for relaxed regulations on its robotaxi plans. However, TSLA shares declined sharply after reporting disappointing Q4 deliveries, continuing into 2025. In contrast, Chinese EV companies like BYD Company (BYDYY, Financial), NIO (NIO, Financial), ZEEKR (ZK, Financial), and XPeng (XPEV, Financial) experienced strong delivery growth in December, aided by Chinese government incentives for new energy vehicles.

  • TSLA's Q4 deliveries increased by 2% year-over-year to 495,570 vehicles, setting a new record but missing analysts' expectations. Despite end-of-year discounts and incentives, TSLA faced its first annual delivery decline of 1.1% to 1.79 million vehicles in 2024.
  • Slowing EV demand and rising competition, especially from China, are impacting TSLA. BYDYY's sales surged over 41% in December to 514,809 vehicles, with an annual total of about 1.76 million units, positioning it to potentially surpass TSLA as the world's largest EV maker.
  • XPeng (XPEV, Financial) deliveries soared 82% year-over-year in December to 36,695 vehicles. Despite macroeconomic challenges, XPEV and other Chinese EV makers are launching new models to capture market share, including XPEV's affordable MONA sub-brand and the MONA M03 hatchback coupe, which saw December deliveries exceed 15,000 units.
  • Chinese EV makers are reducing development time by using standardized platforms for multiple models. This strategy allowed NIO (NIO, Financial) to launch the ONVO brand last May, achieving 10,582 deliveries in December and increasing NIO's total deliveries by 73% to 31,138 for the month.

Overall, TSLA has lost ground to competitors in Q4 despite increased discounts and incentives. However, with plans to introduce a lower-priced model in 2025, TSLA aims to regain delivery growth this year.

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