By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you buy good businesses at attractive prices, your portfolio returns could exceed the average market return. For example, Cochlear Limited (ASX:COH) shareholders have seen the share price rise 45% over three years, well in excess of the market return (5.6%, not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 4.8%, including dividends.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
See our latest analysis for Cochlear
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Cochlear was able to grow its EPS at 3.4% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. This EPS growth is lower than the 13% average annual increase in the share price. This suggests that, as the business progressed over the last few years, it gained the confidence of market participants. It is quite common to see investors become enamoured with a business, after a few years of solid progress. This optimism is also reflected in the fairly generous P/E ratio of 55.22.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Cochlear's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Cochlear the TSR over the last 3 years was 51%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
Cochlear shareholders are up 4.8% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. It's probably a good sign that the company has an even better long term track record, having provided shareholders with an annual TSR of 7% over five years. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.
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