When we're researching a company, it's sometimes hard to find the warning signs, but there are some financial metrics that can help spot trouble early. More often than not, we'll see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining amount of capital employed. Basically the company is earning less on its investments and it is also reducing its total assets. And from a first read, things don't look too good at Shangri-La Asia (HKG:69), so let's see why.
For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on Shangri-La Asia is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.016 = US$197m ÷ (US$14b - US$1.3b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).
So, Shangri-La Asia has an ROCE of 1.6%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Hospitality industry average of 7.0%.
See our latest analysis for Shangri-La Asia
In the above chart we have measured Shangri-La Asia's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Shangri-La Asia for free.
There is reason to be cautious about Shangri-La Asia, given the returns are trending downwards. To be more specific, the ROCE was 2.5% five years ago, but since then it has dropped noticeably. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last five years. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect Shangri-La Asia to turn into a multi-bagger.
In summary, it's unfortunate that Shangri-La Asia is generating lower returns from the same amount of capital. It should come as no surprise then that the stock has fallen 35% over the last five years, so it looks like investors are recognizing these changes. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.
Like most companies, Shangri-La Asia does come with some risks, and we've found 1 warning sign that you should be aware of.
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