The prior section on How To Buy Stocks focused on what stocks to buy. It covered stock lists and a stock screener to discover ideas, as well as stock ratings to evaluate your potential stock picks. In this section, we'll focus on when to buy stocks using stock charts and technical analysis; the optimal time for buying stocks.
↑ X NOW PLAYING How To Make Moving Averages Work For Your TradesUnderstanding both fundamental and technical analysis is crucial to stock picking. To fully understand how to invest in stocks and the best time to buy, you also need to have a sound approach to stock market timing, as covered earlier.
Keeping in mind these other aspects of stock investing, let's focus on how to read stock charts and understand technical analysis.
•Stock Charts Tell You A Story •What's In A Stock Chart? •Follow The Funds: Track Price & Volume With Technical Analysis •Spot Support & Resistance With Moving Averages •Using Chart Patterns To See When To Buy Stocks •New Highs And New Buys In Stock Charts •Cup And Cup With Handle: Common Chart Patterns •Double Bottom: Common Chart Patterns •Flat Base: Common Chart Patterns •Alternative And Add-On Buy Points |
When learning how to invest in stocks, stock charts can seem overly technical at first. Talk of moving averages, chart patterns, relative strength lines and other terms can scare off beginning investors. But put aside all the jargon of technical analysis to understand what stock charts really do. They tell you a story.
Stock charts simply give you a visual representation of changes in share price and trading volume. They cut through all the rumors, headlines, hype and fear. They paint an objective picture of what is really going on with the market and individual stocks.
Once you learn what to look for, you'll see that stock charts and technical analysis give you objective, fact-based insight into key questions that impact your stock investing strategies.
By the end of this section, you'll know the basics of how to use stock charts. You'll also see how to use technical analysis to make sense of the "story" the charts are telling. Once you've done that and also gone through the earlier sections, How To Buy Stocks and Stock Market Timing, you'll have a solid understanding of how and when to buy stocks. These approaches to technical analysis will also help you learn when to sell stocks.
Want To Expand Your Investing Skills? Join An IBD Meetup Group — Online From Anywhere
Some services make stock charts overly complex, adding too much non-essential information. IBD charts are clean and simple, featuring all the key indicators you need to answer the questions mentioned above to understand the "story" the chart is telling. Our stock charts are also color-coded to make it easier to spot daily and weekly moves, as well as spot trends.
Here's a quick look at the key elements to look for in a stock chart. (The discussion below focuses on the daily and weekly charts, but the same concepts apply to monthly or intraday stock charts.)
Investors new to stock investing may wonder if they should use daily or weekly stock charts. The short answer is use both.
Weekly charts help smooth out daily price fluctuations, making it easier to identify longer-term trends in both the market indexes and individual stocks. Daily charts helps you spot specific buy points, buy zones and sell signals.
Using the daily and weekly stock charts together helps distinguish between normal price changes and a true shift in trend. That will prove valuable when it comes to both pinpointing the best time to buy — and deciding if it's time to sell or just sit tight.
What is the most immediate and effective way to monitor demand in the indexes and individual stocks? Track price and volume fluctuations in both daily and weekly stock charts.
You can also measure how heavily stocks are being bought or sold with stock ratings and features, such as the Accumulation/Distribution Rating and the up/down volume ratio. But stock charts provide the most timely way to gauge buying demand — or a lack thereof — by mutual funds and other large investors that drive the market.
Just click inside the price area on a daily or weekly chart to pull up a data box like the one shown in the screenshot below. You'll find the latest price and volume information, including:
Tracking price and volume in tandem with each other gives unbiased, opinion-free insight into the behavior of the market and individual stocks. As mentioned earlier, stock charts tell a story. A combination of price and volume are at the heart of the storytelling.
Consider these scenarios and what they reveal. To understand these scenarios and related trends, IBD stock charts show how the volume compares to the stock's 50-day and 200-day moving averages on the daily chart, and the 10-week and 40-week moving averages on the weekly chart.
In addition to the volume, also watch at what price the stock closes on an individual day or week. It's a sign of demand to see a stock close in the top half of the price zone for the day or week.
Understanding the importance and meaning of price and volume is essential to understanding stock charts, chart patterns and buy points. Another key element for understanding chart patterns that form the basis for determining buy points is the concept of support and resistance.
Year after year, decade after decade, the same handful of chart patterns show up again and again. Technologies and company names will change, but these core patterns never do.
IBM (IBM) in the 1930s. Xerox (XRX) in the 1940s. Walmart (WMT) in the 1970s. Apple (AAPL) in the early 2000s. Whatever the leaders were then and whatever they are right now, the patterns do not change.
They continually repeat because they're based on human nature and the ever-present emotions of hope, fear and greed.
As we'll see, chart patterns — also known as bases or consolidations — serve as launching pads for a stock's big price move. Learning how to spot these formations enables you to buy stocks at the best time with the least amount of risk.
Before getting into different types of chart patterns like a cup with handle, double bottom or flat base, let's look at the basic concept behind them. At its core, learning how to read stock charts and chart patterns comes down to tracking support and resistance.
Think in terms of a "floor" of support and a "ceiling" of resistance.
Hitting A Ceiling Of Resistance
Whether due to a market correction, a problem with the stock itself, or a combination of both, a stock will sometimes go through a down period. When that happens, you can see the stock hitting this ceiling of resistance in the stock chart.
You can assess how aggressive the selling is by checking the price and volume action in the stock chart, as we saw earlier. As the downturn continues, look for signs that mutual funds and other large investors have stopped selling heavily and started to pick up more shares.
Such signs will come in the form of lighter volume on down days and weeks, and heavier buying on the upside. Trading will also start to tighten up, with less volatile price swings. Once the stock settles down, it will begin to move sideways and form the bottom of a base or chart pattern.
Finding A Floor Of Support
The bottom of the base forms the floor of support, which may come at a moving average like the 10-week or 50-day line. Or it may come around a certain price area for the stock.
If institutional investors believe in future prospects of the stock, they'll start to establish new positions or add to existing ones. Once the floor of support is established, the stock will begin to climb, forming the right side of the chart pattern.
After a stock has established a floor of support and built the right side of a chart pattern, it will eventually run into a new ceiling of resistance. That becomes a testing ground for the stock.
Will the stock bump its head against that ceiling and fall back down? Or will it punch through that ceiling in big volume and break out to new highs?
That line of resistance establishes the ideal buy point. If the stock has the power to punch through the ceiling in strong volume (and market trends are favorable), chances are high that the stock is ready for a new run.
Stock investing is all about keeping the odds in your favor. Such action in the stock chart shows that the stock has established support and found enough demand to break through that prior area of resistance. Known as a breakout, it gives investors the highest likelihood of success, with the least risk of failure.
Of course, there are no guarantees in the stock market. Depending on overall market conditions and other factors, some breakouts will fail. As part of the three key tenets of how to make money in stocks, waiting for a stock to form a chart pattern and break out is essential to understanding how to buy stocks.
Like steppingstones, leading stocks typically form multiple chart patterns as they make their big moves over several months or even years. The process we just went over of finding support, hitting resistance, and breaking out past new buys points continues to repeat.
Below is a simplified version of what that looks like.
The biggest gains typically come on breakouts from early stage bases. After a stock has formed and broken out of a couple of chart patterns, risks increase. That's because once a stock has formed multiple patterns, it has, by definition, already made a significant climb. At some point, it will run out of steam and retreat. Then the stock will reset its base count by undercutting the low in the most recent pattern. That drops the count back to one, potentially setting the stage for a renewed climb.
Note that there is a strong correlation between base counts and overall market trends.
First, chart patterns often form during market corrections. And breakouts from buy points tend to happen around the same time the market trend is showing rising strength or resilience as indicated in the The Big Picture and Market Pulse.
Second, you'll often see stocks forming third-, fourth- or later-stage chart patterns when the market indexes have also already made a significant move. So when using stock charts to pinpoint bases and buy points, also take into account the concept of stock market timing discussed earlier. Understanding that relationship is key to understanding how to invest in stocks.
Finally, the depth and length of chart patterns tend to mirror what is happening in the stock market indexes. In short and shallow market corrections, you'll see many stocks form similarly short and shallow chart bases. In a severe and extended bear market, you'll see that reflected in the chart patterns stocks form in that environment.
So it's not unusual to see growth stocks that made big gains in the prior bull market fall sharply and form long and deep bases in the bull market that follows.
Investing Tip: See how to count bases to manage risk and keep the odds in your favor.
For each of the telltale chart patterns coverer here, a key requirement is that the stock be at or near a new price high as it breaks out.
A new price high is a sign of strength and an important reminder of this historical stock market fact regarding how to buy stocks:
Avoid stocks trending down and hitting new lows. To improve your stock investing, focus on stocks showing strength as they climb into new-high ground and break out of a sound chart pattern.
The New Highs list features stocks at or near new price highs.
When getting started with stock investing and how to read stock charts, focus on the three primary patterns. While there are other types of bases, these are the most common and they consistently produce impressive gains in every market cycle.
By using stock charts to spot these bases, you'll be able to get in early on the best stocks to buy and watch.
So start by getting to know these three common chart patterns and the buy points they provide.
What To Look For In A Cup With Handle
Prior uptrend of at least 30%
To form a proper chart pattern, you have to have a prior uptrend. The idea behind bases is that after making a decent run, the stock takes a breather, then forms stepping stones to set up an even higher climb.
Base depth: 15%-30%
The depth of the base — measured from the peak on the left side of the cup to the lowest point of the cup — should be between 15% and 30%. In a severe bear market, the depth may be 40% — 50%. As a general rule, look for stocks that held up relatively well during the market correction. For example, let's say one stock on your watchlist dropped 35% while another's base depth is only 20%. All else being equal, the stock with the 20% decline could be forming a stronger base.
Base length: At least 7 weeks
The first down week in the base counts as week 1.
The minimum length for a cup with handle is seven weeks, but some can last much longer — several months or even a year or more. Be wary of any chart pattern that has the shape of a cup with handle but is only, say, five weeks long. That's typically not enough time for the stock to consolidate the prior gains. Such bases have a higher chance of failing.
Handle
The handle should be a mild pullback on relatively light volume. The depth of the handle should be 10%-12%. Additionally, the handle should form in upper half of the base. The peak of the handle should be within 15% of old high on the left side of the cup.
A handle is a shakeout of weaker holders — those not committed to holding the stock longer term. A sharp decline of more than 12%-15% in heavy volume could indicate a more serious sell-off, one that might prevent the stock from launching a successful move.
If the handle begins forming too soon (i.e., in the lower half of the base), it could mean institutional buying is not yet as strong as it needs to be to push the stock higher.
Who are the weaker holders getting shaken out in the handle? Typically, they're investors who bought late, right at the end of the prior uptrend. When the stock sold off to form the left side of the chart pattern, they suffered a sharp loss. Getting a profit is no longer their goal. They just hope to recoup some of their losses. So as the stock nears that old high — and the weaker holders' break-even points — they start to sell.
Here's why that shakeout is healthy.
Having a lot of weak holders in a stock means that whenever the share price rises, these weak holders will sell shares, pushing the price back down. (This happens when a stock has excessive overhead supply.) Once most of the weaker holders are out of the picture, it's easier for the stock to move higher with less selling pressure or resistance.
What about the big investors who have been picking up shares as the stock formed the right side of the cup?
These investors are more committed and are holding onto their shares. That's why the volume in the handle is light. Only the weaker holders are selling. The large institutional investors are sitting tight in expectation of a new upward climb.
Ideal Buy Point: Clearing point of resistance in the handle
The ideal buy zone is up to 5% above the ideal buy point.
The buy point in a cup with handle and other chart patterns is determined by a line of prior resistance, in this case the peak in the handle. If the stock can clear that peak (i.e., the prior ceiling of resistance) in heavy volume, chances are good it is ready to ride that breakout into a new run.
If the ideal buy point is, say, 30, then the buy zone would range from 30 to 31.50 — 5% above the optimal initial entry.
For best results, buy stocks as close to the ideal buy point as possible.
Avoid buying stocks that are extended more than 5% above the initial buy point. Once a stock climbs more than 5% above the ideal buy point, it's considered extended beyond the proper buying range.
Stocks often pull back a bit after a breakout. So if you buy extended, there's a higher chance you'll get shaken out of the stock because it triggers the 7%-8% sell rule. (Learn more here about when to sell stocks.)
Volume on day of breakout: At least 40%-50% above average
On the day a stock breaks upward past its ideal buy point, volume should be at least 40%-50% higher than normal for that stock. That shows strong institutional buying. On many breakouts, you'll see volume spike 100%, 200% or more above average. Light or below-average volume could mean the price move is just a head fake, and the stock is not quite ready for a big run.
Also note that sometimes you will see a stock climb right up to the ideal buy point then run into renewed resistance. That's why you want to confirm demand by seeing a stock punch through that buy point in heavy trade.
The cup with handle — also called a cup-shaped base or simply a cup — is a variation on the cup-with-handle chart pattern. As the name implies, it's essentially the same, except it doesn't have a handle. All the attributes (including heavy volume on the breakout), except for the buy point, are identical.
The buy point in a cup-shaped base is determined by the peak on the left side of the cup — the most recent area of resistance.
Below are examples of winning stocks that launched big runs from the cup-with-handle and cup-without-handle chart patterns.
Both the daily and weekly charts are included. As covered earlier, weekly stock charts show the longer-term trend, while the daily charts show the action on the actual day of the breakout. Be sure to use both!
While the shape is different from a cup with handle, the core concept behind a double bottom is essentially the same.
What to Look For
Below are examples of winning stocks that launched big price runs from a double-bottom chart patterns.
Earlier we saw how the best stocks usually form "stepping stones" as they make their big moves. They'll go up for a while, pull back to form a new chart pattern, then resume their climb — giving you multiple opportunities to make money. Flat bases are classic examples of that. They typically form after a stock has made a nice gain from a cup with handle or double bottom. That's why they're often considered second-stage bases.
Here are the key concepts regarding flat bases.
What to Look For
Below are examples of winning stocks that launched big price runs from a flat base.
Cups, double bottoms and flat bases are the main chart patterns that launch big runs. But the best stocks will also typically offer additional buying opportunities as they make their climbs. You can use those entries to add to your existing position or, in some cases, initiate a new one.
Less Is More
Since these are considered secondary buy points, it's a good idea to buy fewer shares than you would from an initial position in a cup with handle, double bottom or flat base.
That's especially true if you're buying more shares in a stock you already own. In that case, you always want to buy fewer shares than you purchased in the initial breakout. That keeps you from running up your average purchase price too much.
Below are two of the most common alternate and add-on buying opportunities:
Like a flat base, this occurs after a stock breaks out, goes up for a while, then pauses to digest those gains. As the name implies, it only takes three weeks to form. (Stocks may also form four-weeks-tight consolidations.)
What to Look For
Below is an example of a stock that launched a big price run from a three-weeks tight.
After a stock has broken out of a proper chart pattern, it may pull back to the benchmark 10-week or 50-day moving average lines.
If the stock bounces off the moving average and shoots higher on heavy volume, it can offer a chance to buy shares. It shows institutional investors are stepping in to "support" the stock and protect their position. It happens around these moving averages simply because professional investors use those lines as key benchmarks.
What to Look For
Below are examples of winning stocks that launched good gains from a pullback to the 10-week or 50-day moving averages.
Use the links below to learn more about stock investing and how to invest in stocks using IBD and The IBD Methodology — and discover how to stay both profitable and protected.
• Investor's Corner: Daily lessons covering all aspects of investing • Investing Videos: Videos featuring stock investing experts • Investing With IBD Podcast: Weekly look at stocks to watch and market trends • More Educational Resources: Online and in-person webinars and workshops |
免责声明:投资有风险,本文并非投资建议,以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请,作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考,不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证,投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。