B2Gold (BTO.TO) maintained its stock ratings and price targets at both RBC Capital Markets and National Bank of Canada, according to notes published Tuesday.
The company kept its Sector Perform rating and US$4 price target at RBC while retaining its Outperform rating and $6.25 price target at National Bank.
RBC said its view is 'Negative" as 2025 guidance for existing operations outlined lower production, higher costs vs. consensus estimates, with cost guidance for Back River (near 45% of NAV) expected in Q2 2025 before first gold. B2Gold's gold production of 186,000 ounces in the fourth quarter was 8% below its estimate and consensus forecast due to lower production from the Fekola mine.
According to RBC, growth should be coming this year from the ramp-up of Back River in the second half of 2025, as well as from Fekola in Mali (pending required permits). However, the bank thinks investors could view the 50% dividend cut negatively despite the near $100 million in annual savings ahead of the start of gold deliveries in mid-2025. Despite the attractive valuation vs. peers, RBC added near-term potential risk on the ramp-up in Nunavut and permitting/political risk in Mali inform its Sector Perform rating until there is more visibility into growing FCF in second half of 2026.
Elsewhere, National Bank on impact said FY25 guidance shows production light, AISC in line and capex above National's forecasts. National noted no blemishes on the Goose project, which remains on budget and on time with first pour in about Q2 2025, and FY24G in line with NBF, costs to be posted ahead of first pour. National noted a dividend reduced in half, liquidity remains sizable with RCF upsized. The bank did note Q4 2024 production below its estimates, weighed by Fekola.
B2Gold was down 1.6% at last look to $3.55 on the TSX.
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