Wall Street and the leaders of some of the most prominent tech companies have their doubts about the near-term prospects of quantum computing, but on Tuesday, the sector was powering ahead.
Shares of D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, Quantum Computing, and IonQ tumbled last weeks following remark from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who said that quantum computers would take decades to become "very useful." The stocks briefly recovered before sliding again last Friday, as Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg said he saw quantum technology as "quite a ways off from being a truly practical paradigm."
Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, told Barron's Tuesday that quantum computing may be "the next big thing," but it is currently in speculation territory.
"It's just too early in quantum computing to have any reasonable idea of future revenues and profits," Stone said. "Most quantum companies have little revenue and lose money, so they are early in their life cycle."
IonQ, for one, generates revenue but isn't yet profitable. The company said it expects to cross this line by 2030, with sales approaching $1 billion.
There is also the matter of competition. Stone noted that bigger players like Alphabet and IBM have potential to dominate the quantum computing space, "so it is unclear how these smaller players will do even if the technology continues to blossom."
But on Tuesday, there was a chorus of support for quantum-computing stocks. D-Wave Quantum climbed 24%, with Rigetti Computing, Quantum Computing, and IonQ gaining 48%, 14%, and 6%, respectively.
Some analysts are upbeat about quantum's potential. B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis raised his price target on D-Wave stock to $9 from $4.50 on Tuesday while maintaining a Buy rating. In a research note, Ellis referenced comments made by D-Wave's CEO in response to the "recent bellwether CEO market-moving remarks" and argued that D-Wave was already commercial.
D-Wave CEO Alan Baratz said in a statement last week that Huang's remarks were "dead wrong," particularly as they related to quantum annealing computers, and emphasized that D-Wave's clients were already using the advanced technology.
Meanwhile, Benchmark analyst David Williams reiterated a $8 price target and Buy rating for the stock following the first customer purchase of an Advantage quantum computer from D-Wave. The sale "represents a major new revenue vector, but equally as important, a validation of accelerating market demand for quantum," Williams wrote.
D-Wave revealed in a regulatory filing Friday that it had entered into a sales agreement with agents including B. Riley and Benchmark, allowing the company to offer common stock worth up to $150 million. The agreement provides the company "flexibility to further strengthen the balance sheet," Williams said.
Baratz, D-Wave's CEO, reaffirmed his belief in the company's progress, telling Barron's that Zuckerberg's remarks "simply reflect a misunderstanding of quantum's readiness."
"Commercial quantum computing is already here -- we're already seeing customers solve useful problems with our quantum computing technology," Baratz said.
The CEO pointed to D-Wave's work with Pattison Food Group and NTT DOCOMO, Japan's largest telecom provider. He said the company's quantum technology successfully reduced the time needed to complete tasks to a fraction of what was needed using classical methods.
Peter Chapman, CEO and chairman of IonQ, has been equally optimistic about the pace of quantum development. In a Jan. 10 news release, Chapman said classical computing hardware was limited by capacity and power requirements that would "likely prohibit society from ever being able to solve some of its most pressing problems."
As IonQ makes strides toward developing its highest-performing quantum computer, #AQ 36 Forte Enterprise, its systems are "already providing insight to customers today," Chapman said.
As Barron's previously reported, smaller quantum-computing companies are at a disadvantage in terms of the resources they can plow into the technology and will likely take years to generate significant revenue. Investors should prepare to play the long game.
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