Jan 13 - Insiders will dominate the list with Clive Buesnel, Sheila Cameron, Sean McGovern and Patrick Tiernan all featuring…

John Neal’s abrupt resignation as Lloyd’s CEO against the backdrop of the struggling Blueprint Two project and an ongoing chairman handover will result in an accelerated process to select his successor and possibly even an interim appointment given Neal is highly unlikely to serve his full 12 months’ notice ahead of joining Aon.

After canvassing the views of market insiders, below we examine the prospects of the leading candidates for a high profile but difficult to define role.

Lloyd’s first underwriting tsar, Rolf Tolle, once quipped that the CEO role is akin to being the “IT man”. Indeed, the CEO does not manage a P&L but as the leader of a near-350-year-old marketplace with multiple stakeholders and complicated legacy back-office systems they inevitably become mired in complex process reform projects – none more costly than Blueprint Two.

We expect the successful candidate will require significant market knowledge, reflecting the fact that the Society’s chairman-elect, Sir Charles Roxburgh, is an outsider (albeit one very familiar with Lloyd’s from his time at McKinsey and more recently HM Treasury), together with the urgent need to impose greater discipline on the modernisation initiative that Neal kick-started shortly after his arrival in October 2018.

The growing unease over its full cost – feared by some at £500mn+ and which Lloyd’s refuses to publish – and repeated delivery delays mean the winner must also have a proven pedigree in delivering operational change. Indeed, we think Roxburgh and the Council members on the nominations committee will conclude this is an essential requirement over and above, say, being an experienced underwriter (the background of both Neal and his predecessor, Dame Inga Beale).

The fact that Lloyd’s COO Bob James has been parachuted into Velonetic, the outsourcing joint venture charged with delivering the Blueprint overhaul, with an interim provided by Accenture (George Marcotte), is another reason for greater leadership experience in this area.

Nonetheless, Lloyd’s is an insurance market and one that has historically excelled in hard markets only to suffer spectacularly in soft ones. Neal rode the recent hard market well and has also twice stepped into the performance role when required, which means he deserves some of the credit for Lloyd’s much improved underwriting performance (NB: the market’s annual result is the aggregate of the ~100 syndicates that compete in the open market; the Corporation regulates these businesses with levers such as capital loadings).

The next CEO is unlikely to be as fortunate with the cycle, with pricing pressures growing in many classes, which means they must focus on ensuring the performance team – currently led by Patrick Tiernan (see below) – has a clear softer market management strategy.

If modernisation is the blot on Neal’s tenure and underwriting the gold star, then there is a mixed picture on culture. His first market “crisis” was a highly critical Bloomberg article in 2019 that portrayed Lloyd’s as a bearpit of sexual harassment. This was an extreme picture that many didn’t agree with, but Neal’s political antennae were correctly attuned – he addressed the issue head-on and imposed new rules to improve behaviour. This was smart but his critics will argue outcomes didn’t always tally with the aims.

In particular, the results of the latest market culture survey were thought not to paint the Corporation in a good light (bottom quartile?), which may also have been a factor in its delay last year. Throughout his tenure there was a troublingly high turnover of senior Corporation executives, some in controversial circumstances.

The market’s panjandrums will be looking for the next CEO to show clear leadership on culture without fear or favour and to improve morale among the Corporation’s staff. He or she will also need to ensure that the consultation to toughen the rules on investigating non-financial misconduct – presumably motivated by the failed case against former Atrium underwriter Richard Tomlin – results in changes which are regarded as fair by the market’s managing agencies, who will be fearful of overreach.

In other words, it is a demanding role with multiple stakeholders to manage. The new CEO will have excellent support in the form of Roxburgh – especially when it comes to negotiating with policymakers and regulators – but will still require the gravitas and confidence to deal with industry leaders, customers and investors while maintaining a focus on operational excellence and leadership.

Finally, Lloyd’s is as reliant on US business now as it was more than a hundred years ago when Cuthbert Heath famously promised to “pay all of our policyholders in full” after the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. Roxburgh will understand this – not least because he is married to Dame Karen Pierce, until later this year the British ambassador to the US. If the next Lloyd’s CEO has high-level experience in working with US clients or companies, then all the better.

The next stage will be to select an executive recruitment firm to advise Lloyd’s on candidates. Ian Lazarus of Sainty Hird & Partners led the search to select Neal in 2018, while last year Russell Reynolds’ Tom Hicks was in charge of the process to find Roxburgh. If it's neither of these firms, then the Virginia Bottomley-chaired Odgers Berndtson will likely be considered. Expect a decision to be made swiftly while discussions take place with Neal about when he leaves considering the conflicts of his new role as head of global reinsurance at Aon.

Runners and Riders (A-Z) from the London market:

Hugh Brennan

Current role: RenaissanceRe Syndicate Management CEO

Age: 47

Comment: A 15-year RenaissanceRe veteran and head of its Lloyd’s operations. Previously spent nine years at PwC in audit and advisory. Well-regarded with credible underwriting pedigree, but his limited profile and lack of senior operational leadership experience make Brennan an outsider.

Form: Outsider

Andrew “Brooksie” Brooks

Current role: Lloyd’s deputy chair, retiring LMA chair and Ascot co-founder and former CEO

Age: 59

Comment: Brooks has a proven track record as a business leader at Ascot and is passionate about the Lloyd’s market, where he is highly influential as deputy chair and as a long-serving Lloyd’s Market Association (LMA) member (retiring as LMA chair shortly). Strong leadership credentials but regarded as unlikely to put himself forward. Repeatedly linked with potential start-up operations. Would prove a popular choice, however, if he decided to put himself forward and as a Lloyd’s man to the bone, would be a credible option as an interim leader if the decision is made that Neal should step away before the succession process is completed.

Form: Each way (strong interim candidate)

Clive Buesnel

Current role: Insurance Advisory Partners, managing partner international

Age: 57

Comment: No one can match Buesnel for the breadth of relevant experience. A founder of Xchanging, he ran the London market back office for many years and is without doubt the most qualified to tackle the problems of the Blueprint Two modernisation project. Previous achievements include turning around Lloyd’s insurer Jubilee and managing Deloitte’s UK insurance and global reinsurance consulting arm.

Indeed, no surprise that he was the alternative candidate to Neal in 2018. Since then, Buesnel’s form has further improved with the successful turnaround and sale of Lloyd’s debt-laden oldest broker Tysers (formerly owned by US private equity) to Australian retailer AUB in 2022.

Well connected with many backers and proven senior leadership experience in operational change management, large corporates, advisory, broking and underwriting, he will be the leading “insider” candidate alongside Sean McGovern (below – who may not run) unless Lloyd’s decides it requires an actual underwriter to be CEO. If it does, then this goes against the Corporation structure, where performance management is overseen by the chief of markets, so we anticipate a strong challenge from Buesnel.

Form: Joint favourite

Sheila Cameron

Current role: Lloyd’s Market Association CEO

Age: 49

Comment: Popular and well connected as LMA CEO, Cameron wrote a generous valedictory to Neal following his announced exit last week but was also influential in demanding greater scrutiny on Blueprint Two and Neal’s oversight of it last year on behalf of the London market.

Cameron also has a strong background in managing process/change functions at Xchanging and The Hartford. Cameron is a serious candidate and will also do well scoring on culture/leadership. However, there is a difference between managing a trade association with ~50 staff and leading the Corporation with its global profile, powerful competing stakeholders and complicated challenges. Will that be regarded as too much of a step up? By some, no doubt, but equally key to succeeding as Lloyd’s CEO is stakeholder management. Cameron has demonstrated at the LMA that she can do this with aplomb,

Form: Shortlist

Richard Dudley

Current role: BMS Group chief broking officer, Lloyd’s Council member

Age: 54

Comment: An experienced reinsurance broker at Aon and, since September 2024, BMS. Popular, well-connected figure and a Lloyd’s Council member. Chaired Neal’s transformation committee so understands the challenges of the modernisation project but equally may be tarnished by association. Dudley’s collegiate, consensus-building leadership style may also be regarded as a positive or a negative, although his sole focus on broking is probably a disadvantage. His recent focus on climate and sustainability at Aon is probably an advantage.

Has just taken up a senior role at private-backed London market broker BMS, which may well rule him out anyway.

Form: Outsider

Jon Hancock

Current role: AIG EVP and CEO of international business

Age: 59

Comment: Hancock spent 25 years at UK insurer RSA but came to prominence leading the turnaround in Lloyd’s profitability with his Decile 10 initiative following the market’s 2017-18 underwriting losses. It was a bruising process that required huge strength of character but it is difficult to argue that the approach wasn’t necessary and he performed a tough job with aplomb. Behind the scenes, he also played an important role in bringing focus to Neal’s initial modernisation plans before leaving in 2020 to head AIG’s international business.

Would he want to return to Lloyd’s after almost five years away? If so, he would be a shortlist guarantee.

Form: Shortlist

Steve Hearn

Current role: PPL chairman

Age: 58

Comment: A prominent London market figure, Hearn is well placed considering his wealth of experience in senior broking leadership roles (including as Willis president and turning around Cooper Gay/Ed), together with a CV that includes chairing the influential London Market Group and broking body Liiba. Currently chairman of PPL, where he has led an overhaul of its structure, showcasing his understanding of market back-office issues. A strong communicator and leader but no experience of active underwriting if that is a criteria.

He is available after leaving Ardonagh last year and has at least one more big executive role in him. Would he consider the Corporation CEO role, however, or would he prefer a return to broking leadership?

Form: Shortlist

Sarah Hughes

Current role: Howden Specialty CEO

Age: 59

Comment: CEO of Howden Specialty since 2023, Hughes is a senior London broker executive who was previously with Aon and JLT.

In other words, Hughes has an excellent grasp of the mindset and needs of Lloyd’s customers – always a valuable requirement for a Lloyd’s CEO which not all of Neal’s predecessors possessed.

Her market profile has grown with her career progression and last year she was appointed to the London Market Group as the broker association representative.

However, a lack of senior operational leadership experience may be to her disadvantage.

Form: Outsider

Paul Jardine

Current role: Asta non-executive chair

Age: 63

Comment: A Lloyd’s runners and riders list is rarely complete without the inclusion of everyman Jardine, who has no doubt been a candidate for both Lloyd’s CEO and chair roles in the past. A popular London market management figure who for many years was Stephen Catlin’s right-hand man at Catlin Underwriting. Has served on multiple market committees and understands the perennial issue of market modernisation. Is unlikely, however, to put himself forward.

Form: Outsider

Burkhard Keese

Current role: Lloyd’s CFO

Age: 58

Comment: If there is a stereotype of a German numbers man then it isn't the flamboyant Burkhard Keese, who married into Prussian nobility and whose pastimes include flying (across the Atlantic) and sailing, where he has a reputation as a talented yachtsman. A loyal Neal lieutenant, he is in theory well-placed and deserves credit for the successful roll-out of the London Bridge securitisation platform.

However, he is also independently minded which might unnerve some of the more conservative-minded Lloyd’s kingmakers. Known to have applied pressure demanding greater Blueprint cost oversight last year but may still be regarded as too close to it if fresh eyes are required (a challenge for his fellow Corporation candidate, Patrick Tiernan).

Form: Each way

Dame Sue Langley

Current role: Arthur J Gallagher UK chair

Age: 61

Comment: On paper, a credible candidate with senior leadership and operational experience at Hiscox and Lloyd’s (former COO) and female. However, a non-runner considering her likely appointment as Lady Mayor later this year before any other examination of her past achievements.

Form: Non-runner

Kate Markham

Current role: Hiscox London Market CEO

Age: 50

Comment: Over 12 years at Lloyd’s insurer Hiscox, including seven running its London market arm. Previously a Vodafone executive and started her career at Accenture. A prominent female London market leader with the added advantage of technology/change management on her CV, Markham is an obvious candidate who has delivered strong results at Hiscox and is clearly highly capable.

Form: Each way

Bronek Masojada

Current role: SiriusPoint chair

Age: 63

Comment: A 20+ year Hiscox CEO and former chairman of London placement platform PPL, Masojada was a recent leading candidate to succeed Bruce Carnegie-Brown as Lloyd’s chair but Hiscox’s hard-line Covid-19 claims strategy was likely held against him. Unlikely to put himself forward for this role not least because he is a future Lord Mayor.

However, there are few on this list that could match his track record in addressing struggling London market back-office problems – as he demonstrated with his turnaround of PPL – and his style as a strong but fair-minded leader without favourites has its attractions.

Form: Each way (but unlikely to run)

Sean McGovern

Current role, Axa UK CEO, Lloyd’s Council member and incoming LMA chair

Age: 54

Comment: McGovern’s pedigree is almost peerless considering his connections as forthcoming LMA chair and Lloyd’s Council member along with his strong reputation as former Lloyd’s general counsel and chief risk officer. Arguably, he was a credible candidate when Dame Inga Beale arrived in December 2013, which raises questions about whether he would consider the role a second time round. Nonetheless, in the time since, his star has risen further with the credible turnaround of Axa XL’s London market operations, which now means he can point to direct underwriting management.

A potential negative is a lack of senior operational leadership experience but McGovern has many attributes when it comes to leadership/culture/strategy and arguably knows the Lloyd’s track better than any other potential runner.

Form: Joint favourite (if running)

Patrick Tiernan

Current role: Lloyd’s chief of markets

Age: 49

Comment: Like Keese, is well-placed considering his current Lloyd’s executive role as chief of markets. If selected, his successor is already in place in the form of former Beazley underwriter Rachel Turk, who joined the market in November 2023 as CUO. Regarded as having continued the good work of his predecessor Hancock and must therefore take credit for the continuing renaissance in Lloyd’s underwriting performance.

Tiernan’s age profile is another positive and he is ambitious, having previously put himself forward as a CEO replacement candidate. Will also potentially have strong support from influential parties such as Lloyd’s deputy chairs Vicky Carter and Andrew Brooks. Has also returned to work after a temporary absence due to health reasons last year.

Are there any negatives? The lack of senior operational leadership experience is the obvious one while he appears to have kept a distance from the Blueprint project. This means he’s not tarnished with its failings but equally is he the leader required to ensure it is finally delivered? Either way, he is the obvious interim candidate if Neal exits prematurely.

Form: Joint favourite (and strong interim candidate)

Caroline Wagstaff

Current role: London Market Group CEO

Age: 62

Comment: For someone who has neither an underwriting or broking background, there are only a few in the London market who can match her connections or understanding of market issues.

Since becoming LMG CEO almost four years ago, she has brought huge energy to the role – astutely lobbying on behalf of the London market on a number of issues including regulation while introducing new initiatives such as the thriving Futures programme. Wagstaff has also been involved with Lloyd’s since the late 1990s when she joined the Corporation as its marketing and communications head, a period that coincided with the challenges and uncertainty of the post-9/11 landscape.

Negatives? Well, the obvious one is not having led an insurance-related business or having a senior operational background. But she is a proven leader of the London market in her current role, has superb communication skills (built a successful PR company after leaving Lloyd’s) and knows how to build consensus and diplomatically manage Lloyd’s stakeholders.

Form: Odds shortening…

Jane Warren

Current role: Liberty active UW/CUO, incoming Lloyd’s Council member

Age: 65

Comment: Liberty Managing Agency’s active underwriter and CUO, Warren will also shortly join the Lloyd’s Council, confirming her place as one of the market’s most influential and respected underwriting leaders.

Warren has also occupied a number of senior – and relevant – roles across operations (she was previously Axis COO), underwriting, risk management, broking and regulation, which marks her out as an obvious shortlist candidate. Also helpful, she has consistently championed the diversity cause and would therefore also score well on culture leadership.

Form: Shortlist