Markets were buoyant on Friday, the last trading day ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday, but there were some signs of jitters on Wall Street.
Stocks were on track to have their best week since early November when the election results sent equities soaring, while bitcoin jumped to its highest level in a month.
The Republican trifecta in Washington—control of both chambers of Congress and the White House—that will be realized Monday is expected to usher in a raft of deregulation, tax breaks, and other business-friendly policies.
Trump’s vows to support blockchain technology—and his personal and business ties to the cryptocurrency industry—have lifted cryptocurrency prices since his reelection. The price of bitcoin (BTCUSD) surged above $105,000 on Friday, while lesser-known coins also gained.
Other "Trump trades" were also advancing on Friday. Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), which can be seen as a proxy for the president-elect’s popularity, were up about 2%, and have gained more than 20% since the start of the year. Shares of Tesla (TSLA), whose CEO Elon Musk has become one of Trump’s closest advisors, were up 6% Friday, pushing their post-election gain to 75%.
Investor enthusiasm for Trump 2.0 isn't unequivocal. Wall Street has grappled for months with uncertainty about how Trump’s trade and immigration policies will affect inflation. Economists generally agree that his tariff and deportation plans carried out as he’s threatened would exacerbate inflation and force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated.
Trump’s advisors have assuaged some of the market’s fears by suggesting he’ll take a more measured approach than his campaign rhetoric implied.
Nonetheless, markets could be volatile next week as Trump issues a torrent of executive orders. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, was around 16 on Friday after falling steadily this week as Wall Street cheered reassuring inflation data. But according to data from brokerage Charles Schwab, VIX options volume was above-average on Thursday and the most traded contract—the VIX at 18, expiring on January 22—could imply traders expect volatility to rebound next week.
Retail investors have also shown some caution heading into the first week of Trump 2.0. Individual investors piled into crypto stocks and DJT in the weeks after Trump’s victory, but buying has been muted in the past several weeks, according to Vanda Research data that runs up to Jan. 14. Granted, uncertainty about the future of inflation and interest rates has hung over stocks since the start of the year, and retail traders may have been waiting until after this week’s inflation data to rush into the stocks.
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