• Revenue: Fourth-quarter revenue increased 14.3% sequentially; full-year 2024 revenue increased 30% in USD terms to USD90 billion.
• Gross Margin: Increased by 1.2 percentage points sequentially to 59% in Q4 2024; full-year 2024 gross margin was 56.1%.
• Operating Margin: Increased by 1.5 percentage points sequentially to 49% in Q4 2024; full-year 2024 operating margin was 45.7%.
• EPS: Fourth-quarter EPS was TWD14.45; full-year 2024 EPS increased 39.9% to TWD45.25.
• ROE: Fourth-quarter ROE was 36.2%; full-year 2024 ROE increased to 30.3%.
• Cash and Marketable Securities: Ended Q4 2024 with TWD2.4 trillion or USD74 billion.
• CapEx: Fourth-quarter CapEx was USD11.2 billion; full-year 2024 CapEx was USD29.8 billion.
• Cash Flow: Generated TWD620 billion in Q4 2024 operating cash flow; full-year 2024 operating cash flow was TWD1.8 trillion.
• Advanced Technologies Revenue: 3nm contributed 26% of Q4 wafer revenue; 5nm and 7nm accounted for 34% and 14% respectively.
• Revenue by Platform: HPC accounted for 53% of Q4 revenue; Smartphone 35%; IoT 5%; Automotive 4%.
• First Quarter 2025 Guidance: Expected revenue between USD25 billion and USD25.8 billion; gross margin between 57% and 59%.

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Sign with TSM.

Release Date: January 16, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

• Fourth-quarter revenue increased by 14.3% sequentially, driven by strong demand for 3nm and 5nm technologies.
• Gross margin improved by 1.2 percentage points to 59%, reflecting higher capacity utilization and productivity gains.
• Advanced technologies (7nm and below) accounted for 74% of wafer revenue, indicating strong adoption of cutting-edge processes.
• HPC revenue increased by 19% quarter over quarter, making up 53% of fourth-quarter revenue.
• TSMC's cash and marketable securities reached TWD2.4 trillion, showcasing strong financial health.

Negative Points

• IoT revenue decreased by 15% quarter over quarter, indicating challenges in this segment.
• DCE revenue decreased by 6%, reflecting potential weaknesses in this area.
• First-quarter 2025 revenue is expected to decline by 5.5% sequentially due to smartphone seasonality.
• Overseas fab expansions are expected to cause a 2% to 3% margin dilution annually over the next five years.
• Inflationary costs, including higher electricity prices in Taiwan, are anticipated to impact gross margin by at least 1% in 2025.

Q & A Highlights

Q: What is TSMC's long-term strategy for US expansion, especially considering recent developments like the relaxation of the N-1 restriction and meetings with key figures like Elon Musk? A: C.C. Wei, Chairman and CEO, explained that while TSMC is interested in ramping up the same technology in the US as in Taiwan, practical challenges make it difficult. The initial phase of new technology ramp-up needs to be close to R&D, which is based in Taiwan. TSMC's overseas expansion is driven by customer demand and requires government support. The company maintains open communication with both current and future US administrations.

Q: With gross margins approaching 60%, how should we think about TSMC's profitability in this cycle, especially with the US fab's cost implications? A: Wendell Huang, CFO, stated that while reaching 60% gross margin is possible under high utilization, US fab costs are higher due to smaller scale, higher supply chain prices, and an early-stage ecosystem. This results in a 2% to 3% margin dilution from overseas fabs annually over the next five years.

Q: How does TSMC view the growth potential of traditional applications like PC and smartphone in light of strong AI demand? A: C.C. Wei noted that while PC and smartphone growth is mild, AI integration into these devices increases silicon content and shortens replacement cycles. This, combined with technology migration, supports TSMC's confidence in a close to 20% CAGR over the next five years.

Q: What is TSMC's perspective on the impact of US export restrictions on China's AI business? A: C.C. Wei mentioned that the initial analysis shows the impact is manageable. TSMC is applying for special permits for affected customers and is confident that non-AI areas like automotive and industrial will receive permissions.

Q: Can you provide an update on TSMC's CoWoS capacity and its application beyond AI? A: C.C. Wei confirmed that while CoWoS is currently focused on AI, other products will adopt this approach in the future. TSMC is working hard to meet customer demand and expand capacity.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.