Scotiabank Previews This Week's Policy Meetings at Central Banks of Chile, Colombia, Brazil

MT Newswires
01-28

Chile's central bank (BCCh) is unanimously expected to hold its overnight rate at 5% on Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET, said Scotiabank.

BCCh said in December in its last statement that "the Board will steadily accumulate information regarding the progress of the economy in order to assess the timing for MPR cuts in the coming quarters" which was a change from previously explicitly saying that "the MPR will see further reductions to meet its neutral level," noted the bank.

Colombia's central bank (BanRep) faces a somewhat mixed consensus, pointed out Scotiabank. Most expect BanRep to cut by another 25bps on Friday.

A minority -- Scotiabank -- thinks the central bank could whiff and stay at 9.5%. Core inflation continues to decline to just over 5.5% year over year but perhaps more significant is that the peso has been appreciating to its firmest level to the US dollar since early October which may provide comfort to ease.

Consensus unanimously expects Brazil's central bank (BCB) to hike the Selic Rate by 100bps on Wednesday, stated Scotiabank. That's because the Committee said it would do it again the last time it hiked by 100bps in December.

It said "the Committee anticipates further adjustments of the same magnitude in the next two meetings, if the scenario evolves as expected."

If BCB delivers three 100bps hikes in a row then the result by the March meeting will be a Selic rate of 14.25% which would eclipse the peak post-pandemic rate peak and hit the highest since 2016, added the bank. A chief concern is soaring inflation expectations.












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