Twilio (NYSE:TWLO) just sent investors into a frenzy, with shares rocketing over 22% on Friday's afternoon, after the company laid out an ambitious growth roadmap. At its investor event, Twilio projected double-digit revenue growth and confirmed that more than 9,000 AI firms used its services in 2024clear proof that demand for its cloud communications tools is surging. Fourth-quarter revenue jumped 11%, beating expectations, and the company is now setting its sights on GAAP profitability in 2025. With a free cash flow target exceeding $3 billion through 2027 and a promise to return half of it to shareholders, analysts were quick to reactTD Cowen upped its price target to $140, while RBC Capital went even higher at $160.
But not everyone is convinced. BofA Securities stuck to its Underperform rating, even as it raised its price target to $77 from $65. The concern? Twilio's valuation is looking richtrading at a sky-high 130x EV/EBITDA. Revenue is expected to grow in the high single digits, or maybe low double digits in an optimistic scenario, but analysts warn that Twilio's competitive edge is thinning, and its efficiency gains are slowing. Sitting near its 52-week high, the stock may have limited room to run, especially if execution missteps or market headwinds creep in.
Twilio, for its part, isn't slowing down. It's doubling down on AI, integrating its Segment platform with its core communications business, ramping up automation, and tightening operations to drive long-term growth. The company is also aggressively buying back shares, a strong signal from management that they believe in the upside. With full Q4 earnings dropping February 13, the real test is whether Twilio can keep up the momentumor if the AI hype is doing more heavy lifting than the fundamentals.
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