It is hard to get excited after looking at ZTO Express (Cayman)'s (NYSE:ZTO) recent performance, when its stock has declined 21% over the past three months. However, stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financial performance over the long term, which in this case looks quite promising. Particularly, we will be paying attention to ZTO Express (Cayman)'s ROE today.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

Check out our latest analysis for ZTO Express (Cayman)

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for ZTO Express (Cayman) is:

14% = CN¥8.7b ÷ CN¥61b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.14 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Earnings Growth And 14% ROE

To start with, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s ROE looks acceptable. On comparing with the average industry ROE of 8.9% the company's ROE looks pretty remarkable. This certainly adds some context to ZTO Express (Cayman)'s decent 15% net income growth seen over the past five years.

As a next step, we compared ZTO Express (Cayman)'s net income growth with the industry and found that the company has a similar growth figure when compared with the industry average growth rate of 15% in the same period.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if ZTO Express (Cayman) is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is ZTO Express (Cayman) Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

ZTO Express (Cayman) has a significant three-year median payout ratio of 53%, meaning that it is left with only 47% to reinvest into its business. This implies that the company has been able to achieve decent earnings growth despite returning most of its profits to shareholders.

Besides, ZTO Express (Cayman) has been paying dividends over a period of six years. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 42% over the next three years. However, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much despite the lower expected payout ratio.

Summary

In total, we are pretty happy with ZTO Express (Cayman)'s performance. We are particularly impressed by the considerable earnings growth posted by the company, which was likely backed by its high ROE. While the company is paying out most of its earnings as dividends, it has been able to grow its earnings in spite of it, so that's probably a good sign. That being so, a study of the latest analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to see a slowdown in its future earnings growth. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.