Asian markets will be closely watching a range of key data releases this week, with inflation, trade, and GDP figures set to drive market sentiment.

Australia's inflation numbers and its potential impact on monetary policy will be a significant focus, alongside China's manufacturing activity and GDP figures from the Philippines.

The week ahead also features the usual end-of-month data deluge from Japan that could provide insights into its economic health.

MONDAY, Jan. 27

Government data showed China's factory industry had a weak start to 2025 as the official NBS Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in January from December's 50.1.

This contraction, the first since September, comes amid anticipated slowdowns before the Lunar New Year holidays.

Similarly, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2 in January, down from December's nine-month high of 52.2, reflecting a seasonal slowdown ahead of the Chinese New Year celebrations.

In contrast, Hong Kong's export growth accelerated to 5.2% year-on-year in December 2024, reaching $406.7 billion, up from a 2.1% rise in November, according to official data.

This marked the tenth consecutive month of expansion and the strongest since August. Increased exports of office and data processing machines drove the growth.

TUESDAY, Jan. 28

Singapore will publish its preliminary fourth-quarter labor data alongside December export, import, and producer prices. Malaysia will likewise unveil producer prices for the final month of 2024.

WEDNESDAY, Jan. 29

The midweek release of Australia's Q4 inflation figures will be pivotal for the Reserve Bank of Australia's February interest rate decision.

The nation's four major banks have offered their predictions.

NAB expects a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter increase in trimmed mean CPI (down from 0.8% in Q3); CommBank forecasts a 0.5% increase in trimmed mean inflation (annual rate of 3.2%); Westpac estimates a 0.6% trimmed mean increase (annual rate of 3.3%); and ANZ revised its trimmed mean forecast to 3.2% annually.

"The December quarter CPI report will make or break the case for the RBA Board to reduce the cash rate at their next meeting in February," CommBank said in a note.

ANZ Research has revised its forecast for the start of Australia's interest rate easing cycle, now predicting the first cut in February instead of its previous expectation of May, following weaker-than-expected November inflation figures.

"We haven't changed our view on how many cuts there will be in this cycle," ANZ Australia Senior Economist Catherine Birch said in a note. "We think there will still only be two 25-basis point rate cuts. One in February, and then an extended pause until the next one in August."

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will publish the minutes of its December meeting when it maintained its policy rate at 0.25%.

THURSDAY, Jan. 30

The Philippines' gross domestic product growth likely quickened in the fourth quarter of 2024.

A BusinessWorld poll of 18 economists yielded a median estimate of 5.8% YoY GDP growth for the December quarter, accelerating from 5.2% in Q3.

If realized, this would be higher than the 5.6% expansion in Q4 2023.

The same poll yielded a median forecast of 5.7% for 2024 full-year economic growth, below the government's revised 6-6.5% GDP goal.

"Growth missed the target as capital formation remains below pre-pandemic levels, but 2025 promises to be a better year for the sector thanks to policy easing from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. Projected follow-through rate cuts could help support growth further in 2025 and ensure growth finally hits the target," Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa, chief economist at Metropolitan Bank & Trust, was quoted by BusinessWorld as saying.

New Zealand's December trade figures, Australia's Q4 export prices, and Taiwan's consumer confidence data will also be released on Thursday.

FRIDAY, Jan. 31

Japan will dump several indicators that could provide insights into the country's economic health.

Inflation: A Reuters poll of economists suggests that Tokyo's core consumer price index edged up to 2.5% YoY in January from 2.4% in December, driven by higher gasoline prices.

Unemployment: The market consensus for Japan's December jobless rate is 2.5%, unchanged from a month prior.

Activity: Japan's industrial output is forecast to rebound by 0.3% month-on-month in December, recovering from a 2.2% drop in November, according to a Reuters survey. Retail sales are also expected to have increased, rising 3.2% year-on-year in December.

SATURDAY, Feb. 1

South Korea's January trade data will be released on Saturday.

"Both of [South Korea's] exports and imports are expected to contract sharply in January mainly due to unfavorable calendar effects. The timing of the Lunar New Year usually causes volatility in January and February trade figures. This year, January trade should be more adversely affected due to an additional public holiday announced by the government. Despite the sudden drop in exports, we expect a rebound in February," ING Bank said in a note.