Cameco (CCO.TO) was at last look down 9% in early Canada trade on Monday as the company announced the resumption of operations at JV Inkai, while National Bank provided some colour on Cameco's exposure to the U.S. ahead of potential tariffs.
On the resumption of operations, production was suspended on Jan. 1 after Cameco's 40%-owned JV Inkai was late submitting updated project documentation to the Ministry of Energy. Cameco and Kazatomprom, which owns 60% of JV Inkai, are now working to determine the impact of the production suspension on the operation's 2025 production plans.
For its part National Bank said it has now updated its model to reflect a 27-day suspension of production at JV Inkai in Q1 2025 with no material changes to its estimates. As the bank previously highlighted, it expected that a 30-day suspension could lead to a near 1% impact to its 2025 estimated EBITDA. As a result of its model update, National's NAV and 2025 estimated EBITDA of $51.26 per share (unchanged) and $1,911 million ($1,946 million prior) remain largely unchanged. National has additionally provided some colour on its estimate of CCO's uranium sales exposure ahead of potential U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada. Effectively, the bank expects uranium to be excluded from tariff discussion, but its highlighted that CCO's exposure to the U.S. hovers around the 40% mark according to its estimates or near 30% of its 2025 estimated EBITDA. If tariffs were imposed on uranium, National Bank believes that it will likely be absorbed by U.S. utilities given uranium being at most 15% of nuclear reactor operating costs.
The company's shares were last seen down near 9% at $73.40.
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