When we're researching a company, it's sometimes hard to find the warning signs, but there are some financial metrics that can help spot trouble early. When we see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) in conjunction with a declining base of capital employed, that's often how a mature business shows signs of aging. This indicates to us that the business is not only shrinking the size of its net assets, but its returns are falling as well. So after glancing at the trends within Avi-Tech Holdings (SGX:1R6), we weren't too hopeful.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Avi-Tech Holdings, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.035 = S$1.9m ÷ (S$58m - S$4.1m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

Thus, Avi-Tech Holdings has an ROCE of 3.5%. On its own that's a low return on capital but it's in line with the industry's average returns of 3.6%.

View our latest analysis for Avi-Tech Holdings

While the past is not representative of the future, it can be helpful to know how a company has performed historically, which is why we have this chart above. If you want to delve into the historical earnings , check out these free graphs detailing revenue and cash flow performance of Avi-Tech Holdings.

What Does the ROCE Trend For Avi-Tech Holdings Tell Us?

There is reason to be cautious about Avi-Tech Holdings, given the returns are trending downwards. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 11% that they were earning five years ago. And on the capital employed front, the business is utilizing roughly the same amount of capital as it was back then. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last five years. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect Avi-Tech Holdings to turn into a multi-bagger.

The Key Takeaway

All in all, the lower returns from the same amount of capital employed aren't exactly signs of a compounding machine. Long term shareholders who've owned the stock over the last five years have experienced a 30% depreciation in their investment, so it appears the market might not like these trends either. That being the case, unless the underlying trends revert to a more positive trajectory, we'd consider looking elsewhere.

On a final note, we found 3 warning signs for Avi-Tech Holdings (1 is a bit concerning) you should be aware of.

While Avi-Tech Holdings may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.

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