Intuitive Surgical's Q4 Performance and Market Reaction
GuruFocus
01-25
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG -3%) reported strong Q4 results, surpassing expectations in revenue and earnings. The company saw robust procedure growth, with system placements growing at a similar pace. ISRG maintained its FY25 guidance, anticipating a 13-16% increase in procedures, building on a 17% rise in FY24.
Why Are Shares Down? ISRG's Q4 revenue expectations were set at $2.41 billion, leading shares to hit record highs with a 14% surge over five trading days. This followed an already high stock price, resulting in profit-taking today.
ISRG met its Q4 projections, achieving 25.2% year-over-year revenue growth to $2.41 billion, with an 18% increase in global da Vinci procedures. The company placed 493 da Vinci systems, including 174 da Vinci 5 systems, marking a 19% year-over-year gain.
Investors focused on management's comments, noting a small decline in bariatric procedures due to the rise of GLP-1 medications, with a low to mid-single-digit decrease in the U.S., consistent with Q3.
Positive trends included a significant increase in U.S. placements, with over 35% growth in the second half of 2024. However, system utilization, an important metric linked to patient demand and hospital health, rose only slightly. ISRG believes utilization has room to grow.
For 2025, ISRG expects non-GAAP gross margins to be slightly lower than 2024, targeting 67-68% compared to 69.1% last year. This forecast excludes potential tariff impacts, which could be significant. ISRG remains confident in achieving margins above 70% in the medium term as it enhances margins in specific surgical systems.
With Q4 results already anticipated, minor issues were amplified. Despite a decline in bariatric procedures and a slight margin dip for FY25, today's market reaction is likely due to recent stock gains and high valuation multiples. At a 72x forward earnings multiple, ISRG is vulnerable to profit-taking on unexpected challenges, including tariffs.