Novartis AG NVS, a Swiss pharma giant, is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 and full-year results on Jan. 31, 2025.

The company’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 2.22%. In the last reported quarter, NVS’ earnings beat estimates by 6.19%.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Novartis AG Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Novartis AG price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Novartis AG Quote

Let's see how things might have shaped up prior to the announcement.

NVS' Top Revenue Drivers

With the successful spin-off of the Sandoz business in October 2023, Novartis operates as a single global operating segment. It is now concentrating on four core therapeutic areas — cardiovascular- renal-metabolic, immunology, neuroscience and oncology.

NVS’ fourth-quarter sales are likely to have been boosted by strong growth in Kisqali and Pluvicto sales. The company raised its sales and earnings outlook for 2024 when it reported third-quarter results in October 2024.

Cardiovascular drug Entresto sales witnessed a solid year-over-year surge in the third quarter of 2024, driven by robust demand-led growth, with increased penetration in the United States and Europe following guideline-directed medical therapy in heart failure, as well as in China with increased penetration in hypertension. The momentum is likely to have continued in the fourth quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Entresto's fourth-quarter sales are pegged at $2 billion and $1.97 billion, respectively.

Cosentyx’s sales have also likely witnessed a surge, driven by recent launches, including the hidradenitis suppurativa indication (HS) and the intravenous formulation (IV) in the United States, and volume growth in core indications.

Both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Cosentyx's fourth-quarter sales are pegged at $1.7 billion.

Increased demand has likely fueled multiple sclerosis drug Kesimpta’s sales in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Kesimpta's fourth-quarter sales are pegged at $889 million and $895.4 million, respectively.

The stellar performance of the breast cancer drug Kisqali has likely fueled the top line in the fourth quarter. Sales should have grown strongly across all regions, based on increasing recognition of consistently reported overall survival in HR+/HER2- advanced breast cancer.

Kisqali had earlier obtained FDA approval for a broad indication for HR+/HER2- stage II and III early breast cancer (eBC) at high risk of recurrence, approximately doubling the population eligible for CDK4/6 inhibitor adjuvant therapy, with the inclusion of those without nodal involvement. The label expansion of the drug has likely given additional impetus to sales.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Kisqali's fourth-quarter sales are pegged at $867 million and $874.2 million, respectively.

Robust sales growth, driven by strong demand in the United States and Europe, has likely fueled Pluvicto’s sales in the fourth quarter.

Novartis had earlier received approval for Pluvicto's expanded manufacturing capacity at Millburn, NJ. With an unconstrained supply of Pluvicto at present, the company is now focused on initiating new patients.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Pluvicto's fourth-quarter sales are pegged at $372 million and $402 million, respectively.

Strong growth in Leqvio, too, has likely fueled sales in the fourth quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Leqvio's fourth-quarter sales are pegged at $218 million and $213 million, respectively.

Other growth drivers, such as Jakavi and Tafinlar + Mekinist, have likely witnessed an increase in demand.

However, generic competition for Tasigna has likely affected sales, as in the previous quarters.

Key Recent Events

Earlier this month, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit affirmed the validity of the Entresto (sacubitril/valsartan) combination patent.

While organic growth continues to drive business, NVS is also focused on strategic bolt-in acquisitions to strengthen its pipeline. Last month, Novartis entered into a global license and collaboration agreement with PTC Therapeutics for the latter’s Huntington's disease candidate to strengthen NVS’ neuroscience pipeline.

Novartis acquired Kate Therapeutics in November 2024 to strengthen its portfolio of gene therapies.

The European Commission has approved Kisqali in combination with an aromatase inhibitor (AI) for the adjuvant treatment of patients with hormone receptor (HR)-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative ebc at high risk of recurrence.

NVS' Share Price Performance

Shares of Novartis have lost 5.2% in the past year against the industry’s 0.3% growth.

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What Our Model Predicts for NVS

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Novartis this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for NVS is -0.89% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.81 per share while the Most Accurate Estimate is pinned at $1.79. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Exelixis EXEL has an Earnings ESP of +2.99% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

EXEL beat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, the average surprise being 26.5%. The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 11, 2025.

Sarepta Therapeutics SRPT has an Earnings ESP of +18.55% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

SRPT beat on earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 981.21%.

Amgen AMGN has an Earnings ESP of +3.15% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

AMGN beat on earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 4.10%. Amgen is scheduled to release fourth-quarter results on Feb. 4, 2025.

 

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