LyondellBasell Industries N.V. LYB is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Jan. 31, before the opening bell.

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The company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters and missed twice, with the average earnings surprise being 0.4%. 

LYB stock has lost 18.1% in the past year compared with the Zacks Chemicals Diversified industry’s 1.5% decline.

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Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What Do Revenue Estimates for LYB Say?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s revenues is pegged at $9,507.9 million, indicating a decline of around 4.2% from the previous year’s reported number.

For the Olefins and Polyolefins – Americas division, the consensus estimate stands at $2,763.8 million, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 3.5%.

The same for the Olefins and Polyolefins – Europe, Asia & International division is pegged at $2,713.4 million, implying a 12.5% increase from last year’s tally.

For LYB’s Advanced Polymer Solutions segment, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is $929 million, suggesting a 10.3% rise year over year.

The consensus estimate for the Intermediaries and Derivatives segment’s revenues is pinned at $2,520.2 million, suggesting a 5.3% decrease from the year-ago reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Refining segment's revenues is pegged at $1,813.4 million, indicating a decline of 24.4%. The same for the Technology segment's revenues is pegged at $150.9 million, suggesting a 0.7% fall from a year ago.

Factors at Play for LYB

Softer demand is expected to have weighed on LyondellBasell’s fourth-quarter performance. LYB anticipates that year-end seasonality will result in lower demand in the fourth quarter for most businesses. Higher consecutive natural gas and ethane feedstock costs are likely to have reduced North American integrated polyolefins profits in the fourth quarter. Oxyfuel and refining profits are expected to have declined due to low gasoline crack spreads and the end of the summer driving season. The downturn in the automotive market is also likely to have adversely impacted the Advanced Polymer Solutions segment. 

The refining segment is facing margin pressure from narrowing refining crack spreads, which reflects the price difference between crude oil and processed petroleum products. The continued decline in these spreads is likely to have put pressure on refining margins in the fourth quarter. LYB expects to exit the refining business by the end of the first quarter of 2025 

What Our Model Unveils for LYB

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for LyondellBasell this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for LYB is -8.09%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate stands at 69 cents, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at 75 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: LyondellBasell currently carries Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider, as our model shows these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

ATI Inc. ATI, slated to release its earnings on Feb. 4, has an Earnings ESP of +3.91% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. The consensus estimate for ATI’s fourth-quarter earnings per share is currently pegged at 60 cents.

Avient Corporation AVNT, slated to release earnings on Feb. 13, has an Earnings ESP of +0.11% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The consensus mark for AVNT’s fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 48 cents.

DuPont de Nemours Inc. DD, slated to release earnings on Feb. 11, has an Earnings ESP of +0.06% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The consensus mark for DD’s fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 98 cents.



 

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