EMERGING MARKETS-FX stable after Fed decision; rand up before expected rate cut

Reuters
01-30
EMERGING MARKETS-FX stable after Fed decision; rand up before expected rate cut

US Fed holds rates, sees no hurry to cut

ECB, South Africa central bank decision awaited

Turkish economic confidence rises in January

MSCI EM FX off 0.1%, stocks flat

By Purvi Agarwal

Jan 30 (Reuters) - Most emerging market currencies were steady against the dollar on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it saw no hurry to cut interest rates again, amplifying prospects for persistently high rates in the world's biggest economy.

MSCI's index tracking global EM currencies .MIEM00000CUS was off 0.1%. Trading was thinned as most Asian markets were closed for a Lunar New Year holiday.

The Fed on Wednesday held rates steady and Chair Jerome Powell said there would be no rush to cut them again until inflation and jobs data made it appropriate.

Markets have increasingly dialled back expectations of rate cuts from the Fed in 2025, given the resilience of the U.S. economy and the potentially inflationary impact of President Donald Trump's policy plans.

The spectre of U.S. rates staying higher for longer, coupled with threats of tariffs, has pressured demand for most EM assets that appear risky compared to safe-haven U.S. assets, clouding their prospects for 2025.

Most emerging Europe currencies were steady against the euro ahead of the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision, which is widely expected to be a 25 basis point cut.

"A mildly hawkish Fed should put some pressure on EM markets," ING analysts said in a note, although they added that "currencies appear to remain confident."

Over-the-counter data showed the Russian rouble RUB= strengthened 1.3% against the dollar.

Elsewhere, South Africa's rand ZAR= was slightly higher against the dollar ahead of the South African Reserve Bank's meeting, where it is expected to lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points.

"The SARB has been cutting rates slower than what we've seen in the US. It still has room to move even if the Fed pauses...," said Shaun Murison, senior market analyst at IG.com.

"However, there's a lot of potential for inflation on a global level with the new Trump administration. It is likely that we could deduct a wait and see approach (at the meeting) and maybe not see another rate cut this quarter."

Turkey's economic confidence index rose 0.8% month-on-month in January, data showed. The lira TRYTOM=D3 was 0.1% higher against the dollar.

Among equities, MSCI's emerging stocks measure .MSCIEF was little changed. Poland's main index .WIG20 was up 1.1%.

Philippine stocks .PSI fell to their lowest levels since mid-November after the economy recorded slower than expected growth in the fourth quarter.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** Hong Kong central bank keeps base rate unchanged as Fed holds steady

** Indonesia central bank assures balance of FX supply and demand amid rupiah fall

** Saudi Arabia says GDP grew 1.3% in 2024, lifted by non oil sector

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets nTOPEMRG

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see CEE/

For TURKISH market report, see .IS

For RUSSIAN market report, see RU/RUB

(Reporting by Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru. Editing by Mark Potter)

((Purvi.Agarwal@thomsonreuters.com;))

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