Upstart Holdings, Inc. UPST, an AI-driven fintech disruptor, has delivered an impressive 35.9% surge over the past three months, far outpacing the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund XLF ETF and the S&P 500, which gained 10.3% and 6.5%, respectively. While this rally reflects growing investor confidence, a question arises: Is now the time to buy, hold or sell? Given Upstart Holdings’ long-term potential and current valuation, holding the stock appears to be the best strategy.

3-Month Price Return Performance

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Rate Cuts: A Strong Tailwind for Upstart

Upstart Holdings’ business model thrives in a low-interest-rate environment. By using AI to assess borrower creditworthiness, the company provides faster loan approvals, making it an attractive alternative to traditional lenders.

The Federal Reserve’s two rate cuts in 2024 have already fueled a recovery for Upstart, reversing some of the damage from previous rate hikes that had cut its annual revenue run rate in half. With more cuts expected in 2025, borrowing costs should decline further, stimulating loan demand and revenue growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate reflects this optimism, forecasting strong top and bottom-line growth in the coming years.

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If the Fed stays on track with additional cuts, Upstart’s AI-driven lending model could become even more attractive, unlocking significant upside potential.

AI-Powered Lending: Upstart’s Competitive Edge

Unlike traditional lenders like SoFi Technologies SOFI and LendingClub LC, Upstart Holdings’ AI-driven model analyzes non-traditional data points, such as education and employment history, allowing it to approve loans for a broader range of borrowers while maintaining strong credit performance.

In the third quarter of 2024, 91% of Upstart’s loans were fully automated, showcasing the company’s ability to reduce costs and offer lower annual percentage rates (APRs) — a game-changer in the lending industry. While legacy lenders remain reliant on outdated credit models, Upstart Holdings’ AI-driven approach gives it an undeniable edge.

Additionally, Upstart Holdings is expanding beyond personal loans into auto loans, home equity lines of credit and small-dollar relief loans, creating diverse revenue streams that strengthen its long-term potential.

Valuation Concerns: A Justifiable Caution for Upstart

Despite its strong fundamentals, Upstart Holdings’ current valuation remains a point of concern. The stock trades at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 93.96X, well above the Zacks Financial – Miscellaneous Services industry average of 16.45X. The same is the case with the forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple. This steep premium suggests that short-term upside may be limited, particularly if market sentiment shifts or the Fed’s policy outlook changes unexpectedly.

Forward 12-Month P/S Ratio

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Conclusion: Holding UPST Is the Best Move

Upstart Holdings’ AI-powered innovation, improving macro backdrop and expanding loan offerings position it well for future growth. However, its high valuation makes it vulnerable to short-term volatility. For now, holding the stock is the smartest approach.

Currently, Upstart Holdings carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF): ETF Research Reports

LendingClub Corporation (LC) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) : Free Stock Analysis Report

SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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