Blue Bird Corporation BLBD is slated to release fiscal first-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 5, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is pegged at 83 cents a share on revenues of $355 million. 

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The earnings estimate for the fiscal first quarter of 2025 has remained unchanged over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year contraction of 8.8%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year increase of 11.8%.

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For fiscal 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for BLBD’s revenues is pegged at $1.5 billion, implying a rise of 11% year over year. The consensus mark for the fiscal 2025 bottom line is $3.88 per share, suggesting an uptick of 12%. In the trailing four quarters, this school bus manufacturer surpassed EPS estimates thrice and missed on the other, with the average earnings surprise being 85.12%.

Q1 Earnings Whispers for BLBD

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Blue Bird this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

BLBD has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Shaping Blue Bird’s Q1 Results?

Blue Bird’s upcoming results are expected to reflect robust demand for school buses. The company ended the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 with more than 4,800 units in its order backlog. The company also witnessed strong deliveries of electric-powered buses. It exited the last reported quarter with a backlog of around 630 electric school buses. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BLBD’s revenues from buses is pegged at $328 million, implying an uptick from $242 million in the year-ago period. The consensus mark for revenues from parts is $27.50 million, up from $23 million in the fiscal first quarter of 2024.

Upbeat forecasts for fiscal 2025 make us optimistic about the upcoming results. The company expects net revenues between $1.4 billion and $1.5 billion (compared to $1.35 billion revenues generated in fiscal 2024), with adjusted EBITDA ranging from $190 million to $210 million (compared with $183 million recorded last fiscal).

BLBD’s Price and Valuation

Over the past six months, shares of Blue Bird have declined 27%, underperforming the industry, sector and S&P 500 as well as other noted players in the EV space like Tesla TSLA and startup Rivian RIVN.

6 Month Price Performance

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From a valuation standpoint, BLBD is trading at a forward 12-month sales multiple of 0.81, higher than its 5-year median but lower than the industry’s 2.44. The company has a Value Score of A.

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BLBD Stock is Worth Holding Onto

Blue Bird is not just a traditional bus manufacturer. It’s a pioneer in alternative fuel and electric-powered school buses. With over 90% of school buses in the United States still running on diesel, there’s immense growth potential for cleaner alternatives. Blue Bird has successfully enhanced operations, increased production efficiency and driven new order growth, solidifying its leadership in alternative-powered buses. 

Despite its strong fundamentals, the company's dependence on subsidies and grants presents a potential risk, as reduced government support could impact growth. We know Trump’s unfriendly stance on EVs. On his first day in office, Trump revoked Biden’s EV targets and halted the disbursement of unspent funds earmarked for EV charging infrastructure. Just because of that, it’s better if potential investors don’t buy the stock just yet and wait for more clarity.

Investors already owing the stock can, however, stay invested. While risks like policy changes exist, Blue Bird’s track record of execution and robust financial health mitigate these concerns. BLBD’s balance sheet is strong, with $127 million in cash against $90 million in long-term debt. Its disciplined approach to cost management further strengthens its resilience. And even while EVs may face temporary headwinds under Trump, the future of transportation is green. So, Blue Bird’s long-term prospects remain solid.

BLBD carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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