President Donald Trump’s 10% tariffs on goods manufactured in China will be effective from today, targeting a range of electronics, including PCs and smartphones. Additionally, Trump has hinted at potential tariffs on semiconductor chips and related products, a move that could put further stress on the tech industry.

These tariffs are part of broader trade measures imposed on China, Canada and Mexico. However, Trump announced yesterday that he is postponing tariffs on Mexico for one month, following what he described as productive discussions with Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum.

Impact on Tech Industry

The U.S. tech industry heavily relies on Chinese manufacturing for consumer electronics. Each company will have to decide how to handle the new 10% tariff. Some may absorb the costs, while others may pass them on to consumers, leading to higher prices for both individual buyers and businesses.

If Trump proceeds with tariffs on chips, prices could rise further, aggravating financial pressure on consumers who are already grappling with inflation. Some analysts feel that this tariff move will finally have an adverse impact on the end demand. On Monday afternoon, stocks of major chipmakers, including NVIDIA NVDA, AMD AMD and Intel INTC, were trading lower in response to the news.

Apple Faces Heightened Risk

Apple AAPL is among the most vulnerable companies affected by Trump’s tariffs, given its extensive manufacturing operations in China. The company’s flagship products, including the iPhone, iPad, and MacBook Pro, are now subject to a 10% tariff.

BofA Global Research analyst Wamsi Mohan suggests that Apple could mitigate the impact by shifting production outside of China, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. If Apple sources 80% of its products from other countries, the earnings impact would be minimal — just $0.05 per share.

However, if only 50% of production moves out of China, the hit to earnings could range from $0.07 to $0.12 per share, depending on whether Apple hikes prices. Note that Apple has already been expanding manufacturing in India to reduce its dependence on China. During his first term, Trump granted Apple tariff exemptions, and he may do so again. However, no exemptions have been announced yet.

Future Tariffs on Chips Loom

Trump’s current tariffs do not apply to the most advanced semiconductor chips, but he plans to impose separate duties on them. This could force chipmakers to either absorb the cost or increase prices, which would, in turn, impact PC manufacturers and cloud computing companies.

Tech giants such as Amazon AMZN, Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Meta META and Microsoft MSFT, which invest heavily in AI chips, could face significant cost increases in building data centers. In any case, big tech companies’ AI investments are being considered as high after DeepSeek success revealed (read: Worried About the Magnificent 7? ETFs to Diversify Tech-Heavy Portfolios).

Building semiconductor manufacturing plants in the United States takes years, and while companies like TSMC and Samsung are working on new U.S.-based facilities, they still depend on overseas production.

AI Industry Impact Expected to Be Minimal

“Tariffs are not going to dent the AI Revolution trade,” Ives wrote in a note to investors, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. “Even if the tariffs remain in place for 60 to 90 days, we anticipate exemptions for key products like Apple devices and Nvidia chips.” However, there is no guarantee that the trade dispute will be short-lived or some specific companies will receive exemptions as they had in the past.

ETFs in Focus

Against this backdrop, one should keep a close watch on technology-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like Vanguard Information Technology ETF VGT, Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK, VanEck Semiconductor ETF SMH, iShares U.S. Technology ETF IYW and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund XLC.

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Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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Apple Inc. (AAPL) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK): ETF Research Reports

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): ETF Research Reports

iShares U.S. Technology ETF (IYW): ETF Research Reports

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