Shareholders in Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (NYSE:BZH) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 25% to US$21.33 in the week since its latest quarterly results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$469m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 67% to hit US$0.10 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Beazer Homes USA

Following the latest results, Beazer Homes USA's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$2.63b in 2025. This would be a decent 9.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 11% to US$3.53 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.78b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.56 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 5.9% to US$40.00. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Beazer Homes USA, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$45.00 and the most bearish at US$37.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Beazer Homes USA is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Beazer Homes USA's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 12% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.4% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.4% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Beazer Homes USA to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Beazer Homes USA's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Beazer Homes USA going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Beazer Homes USA is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is potentially serious...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.