The cryptocurrency market remains in a bullish phase, but on-chain data suggests caution, according to a new analysis published by CryptoQuant.

The blockchain analysis firm noted that the cycle could be nearing its peak if investor sentiment reaches enthusiastic levels as Bitcoin continues to attract significant capital inflows.

CryptoQuant’s analysis focuses on the value of Bitcoin held by investors for less than six months, a key indicator of market cycles. Historically, every bullish cycle sees an increase in new investor participation and capital inflows. This time around, the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs provided an additional catalyst, driving investment from both institutional and individual participants. The firm expects this trend to continue through the first half of 2025.

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Despite the optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s price action, CryptoQuant warns that excessive market enthusiasm could signal an impending cycle top. If Bitcoin surpasses its all-time high with strong momentum and altcoins follow suit, a new wave of capital could follow. While this may initially seem positive, similar patterns in past cycles often precede market tops and corrections.

“If Bitcoin and altcoins attract significant traction, leading to a surge in new investors and additional capital from existing participants, this could signal that the end of the current bullish cycle is near,” the report said.

*This is not investment advice.

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