The ASX 200 energy sector was the worst performer in 2024, with shares falling by a collective 18.83%.
Energy companies faced many headwinds, including volatile commodity prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine.
There was also uncertainty about the global economy amid higher interest rates and inflation, and unusual weather altered traditional summer and winter demand patterns in some parts of the world.
So, what do fallen share prices and challenging business conditions mean for dividend yields this year?
Let's take a look at the forecast 2025 dividends for ASX 200 energy shares.
For the purposes of this article, we'll focus on the top eight dividend-paying ASX 200 energy shares by market capitalisation.
The following chart shows the dividend amounts paid by these energy shares last year.
We've calculated the trailing dividend yield based on share prices at the time of writing.
Next to that is the consensus analysts' forecasts for 2025 dividends and the yields they represent today.
These forecasts have been published on the CommSec trading platform.
These ASX 200 energy shares are listed in order of market cap from largest to smallest in the group.
| ASX energy share | 2024 dividend | Trailing yield | Forecast 2025 dividend | Yield |
| Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) | 2.196 | 8.89% | 1.984 | 8.04% |
| Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) | 36.7 cents | 5.21% | 28.1 cents | 3.99% |
| Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL) | 32.5 cents* | 5.08% | No forecast available | N/A |
| Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) | 95.8 cents | 3.30% | $1.402 | 4.83% |
| Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) | 20 cents | 3.28% | 20 cents | 3.28% |
| Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX: VEA) | 13.1 cents | 5.06% | 13.3 cents | 5.14% |
| New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC) | 39 cents | 8.06% | 31.3 cents | 6.47% |
| Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) | 4 cents | 2.63% | 4.6 cents | 3.02% |
As you can see, Woodside shares are expected to pay the highest dividend yield within this group.
The consensus forecast for Woodside's dividend in dollar terms is $1.984 per share, which is almost 10% lower than was paid in 2024.
However, the Woodside share price has also fallen by almost 24% over the past 12 months.
The result is a very attractive forecast dividend yield of more than 8% with full franking credits in 2025.
Top broker Goldman Sachs has a neutral rating on Woodside with a 12-month share price target of $25.
In a new note last month following Woodside's 4Q FY24 report, the broker said:
WDS will release 2024 results on Tuesday 25 Feb.
We forecast US$9.4 bn underlying EBITDA, US$2.7 bn underlying NPAT, US$7.6 bn net debt, and a 45 UScps final dividend paid at 80% underlying NPAT (50-80% target range).
As reported in The Australian, Dougal Maple-Brown, who heads the Australian value equities team at the value investing fund Maple-Brown Abbott, said ASX energy valuations were currently "reasonable".
Maple-Brown also pointed out that many ASX 200 energy shares would benefit from the lower Australian dollar due to the companies' US dollar revenues and Australian dollar costs.
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