Shareholders might have noticed that Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.8% to US$57.32 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$11b and statutory earnings per share of US$1.11. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Chipotle Mexican Grill

Following the latest results, Chipotle Mexican Grill's 32 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$12.7b in 2025. This would be a solid 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 14% to US$1.29. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$12.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.31 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at US$64.70, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Chipotle Mexican Grill analyst has a price target of US$75.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$42.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 15% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 9.7% annually. So although Chipotle Mexican Grill is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Chipotle Mexican Grill. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Chipotle Mexican Grill going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Chipotle Mexican Grill that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.