Wednesday, February 5, 2025

We have an eventful morning in the stock market this Hump Day, with the next installment for Jobs Week coming in hotter than expected for last month, with an impressive earnings beat from a stock that is also a household name, but that which brought a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) rating into this morning’s earnings report.

ADP Jobs Report Strong in Customer Services

Private-sector payrolls for January have been released this morning, with Automatic Data Processing ADP unveiling +183K new private-sector jobs last month — well ahead of the +150K expected. The previous month was revised notably higher, as well: +176K from an originally reported +122K. Today’s headline figure is the highest since October of last year.

ADP pointed out that customer-facing jobs performed much better last month than did goods-producing jobs. This shouldn’t come as any surprise to those who follow these metrics, but it is worth paying attention to, as strong employment in some areas are more than making up for weakness in others. Trade/Transportation/Utilities led the way with +56K new private-sector positions filled, followed by Leisure & Hospitality at +54K and Education/Healthcare at +20K.

On the flip side, Manufacturing lost -13K positions in the private sector for January. Professional & Business Services were positive, but muted compared to recent months. Also, the spread between wage gains among Job Stayers (+4.7%) and Job Changers (+6.8%) is about as narrow as we’ve seen it; this metric has only been around the past few years or so. It’s also pretty low on both sides; the labor market may be healthy, but it currently does not seem to be leading to higher inflation.

U.S. Trade Deficit Sinks to Deepest Levels in Almost 3 Years

Meanwhile, we see a -$98.4 billion in the U.S. Trade Deficit for December this morning, a deeper cut than the -$96.8 billion estimated, and a good distance worse than the previous month’s revised -$78.9 billion. Imports sank -2.6% while Exports were +3.5%; as we’ve seen in other trade prints in recent weeks, we expect much of this activity is pulled forward from an uncertain future with global tariffs threatened and in some cases enacted by the Trump administration.

Disney Posts Stronger-than-Expected Q1 Results

The Walt Disney Co. DIS released fiscal Q1 earnings ahead of today’s opening bell, with earnings of $1.76 per share well above the $1.44 anticipated, for an earnings beat of +22.22%. It’s the 8th straight earnings beat for the entertainment conglomerate. Revenues of $24.69 billion in the quarter marginally surpassed expectations. Shares are up +1.5% on the news, nearly doubling its +1.75% gains year-to-date. For more on DIS’ earnings, click here.

Check out the updated Zacks Earnings Calendar here.

What to Expect from the Stock Market Today

After the market opens, we’ll see final S&P Services PMI for January, along with ISM Services for last month as well. Both are expected to remain well above the 50-level which determines growth from contraction. This would also gibe with this morning’s ADP report, which continues to assert strength in Services while Goods-producing remains challenged.

After today’s close, Qualcomm QCOM will be one among many companies reporting quarterly results. Earnings are anticipated to fetch gains of +6.55% for its fiscal Q1, while Revenues look to add +9.9% year over year. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Ford F, Arm Holdings ARM and MicroStrategy MSTR will be some of the other names we’ll be watching for earnings this afternoon.

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Ford Motor Company (F) : Free Stock Analysis Report

QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) : Free Stock Analysis Report

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) : Free Stock Analysis Report

ARM Holdings PLC Sponsored ADR (ARM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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