MW MicroStrategy will report earnings, but its bitcoin plans are what really matter

By Tomi Kilgore

The company announced in its last earnings report a plan to raise $42 billion to buy bitcoin in three years. It's already spent nearly half of that.

MicroStrategy Inc. is scheduled to release results about its software business after Wednesday's close, but it's unlikely that many on Wall Street will care. Because for most investors, the stock is really just a bitcoin play.

In its last earnings report, MicroStrategy $(MSTR.AU)$ stunned investors by announcing a plan to raise $42 billion over the next three years, through the sale of common stock and debt, so that it could buy bitcoin (BTCUSD).

Investors may be hoping for another announcement, albeit not of the same magnitude. Because in just three months, the company has already completed nearly half of its three-year plan, as it spent $20.5 billion to buy 218,887 bitcoins from Oct. 31 through Jan. 26.

Read: MicroStrategy is still loading up on bitcoin, but the pace of buying is slowing.

Basically, investors want to hear that the company will keep up its pace of bitcoin purchases, because that's what the stock's fate is tied to.

As Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev wrote in a recent note to clients, while bitcoin itself has no intrinsic value, increasing global adoption of the digital currency, a slow rate of bitcoin supply growth and a favorable political environment suggest bitcoin prices will continue to rise.

Also read: Trump vows to build U.S. bitcoin reserve. Crypto community is cheering.

And MicroStrategy's stock needs a boost. While the stock was trading about 38% higher since the company's last earnings report, it has stalled in the last couple months and is trading about 28% below its postearnings, postelection record close of $473.83 on Nov. 20.

Meanwhile, bitcoin didn't peak until Dec. 17, when it hit an all-time intraday high of $109,224, and was recently trading just a little over 11% below that peak.

In the company's last disclosure, it said it had spent a total of about $30.4 billion to buy 471,107 bitcoins, at an average price of $64,511 per bitcoin. At current prices, that holding would be worth roughly $45.6 billion.

As for MicroStrategy's software business - which Mizuho's Dolev said was a nearly "inconsequential portion" of its valuation - analysts surveyed by FactSet expect, on average, the company to swing to an operating loss per share of 9 cents, from a profit of 50 cents a share in the same period a year ago.

Revenue is expected to slip to $122.4 million from $124.5 million. Revenue for its largest product-support business is expected to slip to $61.8 million from $65.5 million, product-licenses revenue is seen falling to $12.4 million from $18.4 million, and subscription-services revenue is forecast to rise to $30.6 million from $21.5 million.

-Tomi Kilgore

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February 05, 2025 14:18 ET (19:18 GMT)

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