Molina Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:MOH) just released its latest annual report and things are not looking great. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 3.0% short of analyst estimates at US$39b, and statutory earnings of US$20.42 per share missed forecasts by 5.9%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Molina Healthcare

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Molina Healthcare's eleven analysts is for revenues of US$43.8b in 2025. This reflects a meaningful 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 6.9% to US$22.51. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$43.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$24.62 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at US$340, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Molina Healthcare analyst has a price target of US$382 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$279. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Molina Healthcare's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 12% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Molina Healthcare's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Molina Healthcare. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$340, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Molina Healthcare going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.