McDonald's (MCD) outlook for 2025 is likely to be modest, with limited earnings growth potential and foreign exchange headwinds, Oppenheimer said in a note Tuesday.

Ahead of McDonald's Q4 earnings release on Feb. 10, Oppenheimer analysts said they re-evaluated their Perform rating, seeking reasons for a more optimistic 2025 outlook. It concluded that current market expectations for 2025, including a projected 2.7% increase in US same-store sales, are reasonable and that it does not foresee "a new path for earnings upside," the report said.

Oppenheimer projects the fast-food giant's 2025 earnings per share at $12.12, below the consensus of $12.40, mainly due to foreign exchange impacts. While global same-store sales and Earnings Before Interest and Taxes, or EBIT margins are in line, "we struggle to identify the [same-store sales] and margin upside required to take a more bullish stance on shares," Oppenheimer said.

McDonald's launched the "McValue" platform with a focus on its $5 meal deal, but the firm suggests its impact on sales growth may be limited, especially in the second half of 2025, Oppenheimer said, adding that it sees more attractive growth opportunities in the restaurant sector with Yum Brands.

Oppenheimer forecasts Q4 EPS of $2.81, slightly below the Wall Street's $2.84, with global same-store sales estimated at -0.4%, and revised 2025 and 2026 EPS estimates to $12.12 and $13.09, both below the Street's forecasts of $12.40 and $13.43, the report said.

Oppenheimer reiterated its perform rating on McDonald's.

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