Cryptocurrency analytics firm Alphractal has detected a local top in Bitcoin price, citing multiple on-chain indicators that signaled weakness prior to the recent drop.

In a new report titled “4 Metrics That Indicate Bitcoin’s Local Top,” Alphractal outlined key factors that suggest Bitcoin has reached a near-term top, with signals pointing to December 16, 2024, as a pivotal moment.

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According to the analytics firm, the metrics that predicted the Bitcoin price drop were:

• 2Y SMA Multiplier – Based on Bitcoin’s two-year moving average, this metric has historically tracked price cycles. According to Alphractal, Bitcoin has been showing weaker growth over time, and a trendline resistance emerged in mid-December that signaled a local top.
• MVRV Z-Score – A measure of realized value relative to market cap, this indicator helps identify overbought and oversold conditions. Alphractal noted that Bitcoin is encountering resistance at a key trend line that lines up with past local highs.
• Reserve Risk Indicators – Metrics such as VOCDD, MVOCDD, and Reserve Risk evaluate long-term holder behavior. The MVOCDD Signal in particular acted as a classic local top warning, indicating that seasoned investors were beginning to reduce exposure.
• On-Chain CapFlow Sentiment Index – This metric combines realized capitalization and momentum indicators to track the strength of coin flows. A weakening trend has been detected, suggesting that experienced holders are offloading coins.

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Despite these bearish signals, Alphractal explained that Bitcoin could recover in the next three months. However, for now, the market remains at a decisive moment with high volatility ahead.

*This is not investment advice.

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