Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) just pulled off a shocker, and Wall Street is paying attention. The AI-driven lending platform crushed expectations in Q4, with revenue soaring 56% year-over-year to $219 million. More importantly, it posted an adjusted EPS of $0.26obliterating analyst forecasts of a $0.03 loss. Loan transactions jumped 68% to $2.1 billion, as Upstart's AI-powered underwriting gained serious traction. CEO Dave Girouard noted that the company's business is firing on all cylinders across every product category, setting the stage for an even stronger 2025.
The momentum isn't slowing down. Upstart's Q1 2025 outlook calls for $200 million in revenuebeating expectationsalong with an adjusted profit of $16 million. The firm expects a GAAP net loss of $20 million, but an EBITDA projection of $27 million suggests it's inching closer to sustained profitability. The company's conversion rate surged to 19.3%, up from 11.6% a year ago, showcasing the growing efficiency of its AI lending model. Investors clearly like what they see, sending shares up 30% as of 11.54am todayhitting their highest level since April 2022.
With full-year revenue guidance at $1 billion and an 18% adjusted EBITDA margin, Upstart's comeback story is gaining serious momentum. The AI lending boom is real, and Upstart is making a case for itself as a dominant force in the space. If it keeps up this pace, the company could soon shift from turnaround play to long-term fintech powerhouse.
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