US equity indexes traded mixed as a stronger-than-expected inflation print sent government bond yields higher, lifting bets the Federal Reserve will extend its policy pause into March.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1% to 19,673.2 after midday on Wednesday. The S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 6,061.5, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.3% lower at 44,447.5. Real estate, energy, and financials were among the steepest decliners. Consumer discretionary led the gainers.
The US seasonally adjusted consumer price index rose by 0.5% in January, above expectations for a 0.3% increase in a survey compiled by Bloomberg and following a 0.4% increase in December, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.4%, faster than the consensus estimate for a 0.3% increase. Core CPI rose by 0.2% in December.
The year-over-year overall and core CPI accelerated to 3% and 3.3%, respectively, from 2.9% and 3.2% in the previous month. The year-over-year rate for CPI, excluding food, energy, and shelter, accelerated to 2.3% from 2.1%.
The January CPI supports the change in the February baseline forecast to remove two of the three interest-rate cuts anticipated this year, Ryan Sweet, Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note, referring to the change in the house view.
The probability of the Federal Open Market Committee extending its policy pause to March jumped to 98% by Wednesday afternoon from 83% a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. October and December are the only months when the probability of a 25 basis-point cut is higher than that of a pause, implying a Fed on hold for most of this year unless it turns out residual seasonality is plaguing consumer prices early in the year, particularly in January.
"We don't want to chalk all the upside surprise to residual seasonality, but shifting through the details, it seems eerily similar to early 2024 when inflation came in hotter than expected," Sweet said in the note. "Keep in mind that the additional tariffs on China along with the slew of tariffs threatened on other countries have yet to make their way into the inflation data."
US Treasury yields jumped intraday, with the 10-year up 9.2 basis points to 4.63% and the two-year 7.7 basis points higher at 4.37%.
Wednesday's inflation data preceded Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance before the House Financial Services Committee in his second day of semi-annual Congressional testimony. In his appearance before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Tuesday, Powell confirmed that the central bank is likely to slow interest rate cuts this year.
Powell said Wednesday that President Donald Trump's calls for lower interest rates won't lead the central bank to change its rate decisions, the Associated Press reported. "People can be confident that we'll continue to keep our heads down, do our work, and make our decisions based on what's happening in the economy," Powell was cited as saying, under questioning from the House Financial Services Committee.
The US dollar appreciated 1.3% against the Japanese yen to 154.41.
In company news, CVS Health (CVS) shares soared 16% intraday, the top performer on the S&P 500, after the company reported Q4 adjusted earnings and revenue that exceeded analysts' expectations.
Gilead Sciences (GILD) reported Q4 non-GAAP earnings and revenue late Tuesday, beating the average analyst estimates compiled by FactSet. Shares jumped 7.6%, among the biggest gainers on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures slumped 2.3% to $71.62 a barrel.
Gold futures fell 0.1% to $2,930.00. Silver jumped 1.5% to $32.82, clawing back its declines from earlier in the session.
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