• Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) 2024: $5.90, within guidance range.
• 2025 EPS Guidance Range: $6.17 to $6.42, with a midpoint of $6.30, representing around 7% growth over 2024.
• Capital Plan: $83 billion, driving 7.7% earnings-based growth.
• Rate-Based Investments Approval: $45 billion.
• Solar Capacity in Florida: 1,500 megawatts now in service.
• Retail Sales Growth Forecast 2025: 1.5% to 2%.
• Five-Year Capital Plan: $83 billion, a 12% increase versus prior plan.
• Annual Earnings-Based Growth Through 2029: 7.7%.
• Equity Funding Increase: $6.5 billion over the next five years.
• Dividend Commitment: 99th consecutive year of paying a quarterly cash dividend.

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 10 Warning Signs with DUK.

Release Date: February 13, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

• Duke Energy Corp (NYSE:DUK) reported 2024 adjusted earnings per share of $5.90, within their guidance range.
• The company announced a 2025 earnings per share guidance range of $6.17 to $6.42, indicating a growth trajectory.
• Duke Energy Corp (NYSE:DUK) has an $83 billion capital plan, driving a 7.7% earnings-based growth.
• The company successfully added 1,500 megawatts of solar power in Florida, enhancing its renewable energy portfolio.
• Duke Energy Corp (NYSE:DUK) maintained a strong track record of regulatory execution, minimizing rate case exposure for 2025 and 2026.

Negative Points

• The company faced impacts from a historic hurricane season, which partially offset top-line growth.
• Duke Energy Corp (NYSE:DUK) anticipates higher interest expenses and modest share dilution to fund its growing capital plan.
• There is a planned increase in O&M expenses due to deferred grid projects and generation outages from 2024.
• The Ohio-Kentucky subsidiary's ROE remains considerably below other subsidiary averages, indicating potential underperformance.
• The company is planning for a significant increase in equity funding, which may impact shareholder returns.

Q & A Highlights

Q: With the updated CapEx and financing, are you guiding towards the top end of the EPS CAGR range? And can you specify the credit metric targets? A: Brian Savoy, CFO: We see the opportunity to earn in the top half of the 5% to 7% range as load growth accelerates from 2027 to 2029. Regarding credit metrics, we finished 2024 at 13.9% FFO to debt and aim for above 14%, providing over 100 basis points above Moody's downgrade threshold and over 200 basis points above S&P's.

Q: Are there any changes in tone from customers regarding load growth opportunities, especially with hyperscalers? A: Harry Sideris, President: We have not seen any pullback from hyperscalers; in fact, they are accelerating their plans. Efficiency gains like DeepSeq are anticipated to increase AI demand, and we are working on innovative solutions to meet their speed requirements.

Q: How does the equity funding plan impact your strategy, and are there any legislative impacts in South Carolina? A: Brian Savoy, CFO: Equity funding is about 1% to 1.5% of our market cap annually. We will explore cost-effective solutions like hybrids. Harry Sideris, President: South Carolina legislation is more about tone-setting and support for our dual state system, with no anticipated changes to our plans.

Q: Can you elaborate on the economic activity in the Carolinas and the Midwest, and any impacts from the change in administration in D.C.? A: Harry Sideris, President: We see strong growth in Indiana, especially in advanced manufacturing. Lynn Good, CEO: Our strategy aligns with federal and state aspirations for reliable, low-cost power. We are exploring nuclear as part of our long-term strategy, supported by federal initiatives.

Q: Regarding the 2025 guidance, are there any conservative elements or headwinds like interest rates affecting the outlook? A: Brian Savoy, CFO: The 2025 guidance of $6.30 EPS is within our 5% to 7% growth range. We have some O&M increases due to storm-related shifts and additional storm cost provisions, which may not have been in previous models.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.