CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE:CXW) came out with its yearly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$2.0b were in line with what the analysts predicted, CoreCivic surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.62 per share, a notable 14% above expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for CoreCivic

Following last week's earnings report, CoreCivic's five analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$1.99b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 8.8% to US$0.68. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.01b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.81 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 7.7% to US$28.00, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic CoreCivic analyst has a price target of US$32.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$25.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the CoreCivic's past performance and to peers in the same industry. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2025. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past five years have seen revenue shrink 0.1% annually. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 6.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, although revenues are improving, CoreCivic is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for CoreCivic. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that CoreCivic's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple CoreCivic analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for CoreCivic (of which 1 is a bit concerning!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.